Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684. After a dip and rise off of pivot trendline, we see a push toward 17,500 where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at least into Q1. We are nearing the mid-December peak risk cycle that will re surface in late January.A50 has been a top long bet from March. The cycle is starting to fracture.A shares and HK represent downside risk that would weigh on EEM and the leadership A shares have held for the better part of 2020. Macro bull case remains strong for China but the intermediate trend for A shares is at risk given the overlapping rise that has formed the rising wedge noted to date.Shanghai composite failing to clear the summer highs is also a weak point of divergence with the A50. After a bounce, the lows near 3,210 attract.Odds for a downside surprise is growing.

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684. After a dip and rise off of pivot trendline, we see a push toward 17,500 where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at least into Q1. We are nearing the mid-December peak risk cycle that will re surface in late January.A50 has been a top long bet from March. The cycle is starting to fracture.A shares and HK represent downside risk that would weigh on EEM and the leadership A shares have held for the better part of 2020. Macro bull case remains strong for China but the intermediate trend for A shares is at risk given the overlapping rise that has formed the rising wedge noted to date.Shanghai composite failing to clear the summer highs is also a weak point of divergence with the A50. After a bounce, the lows near 3,210 attract.Odds for a downside surprise is growing.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Qi An Xin Technology Group  / Index Rebalance

The SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index, also know as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.
ETFs benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> raised just over CNY 21bn at launch and assets have since swelled to CNY 28.2bn due to inflows. The large amount of assets benchmarked to stocks with low free float and trading volumes creates an ideal environment for index rebalance trades to work, as we have seen in the upcoming review which will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 December.
With a maximum of 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will get in March. Potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cambricon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31068:1" rel="noopener">Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qi-an-xin-technology-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31069:1" rel="noopener">Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31070:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trina-solar-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30404:1" rel="noopener">Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/farasis-energy-gan-zhou-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28385:1" rel="noopener">Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH)</a>.
The potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longyan-zhuoyue-new-energy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30364:1" rel="noopener">Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-tztek-technology-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28232:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-seeyon-internet-so-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30393:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-jiuri-new-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30366:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujian-forecam-optics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30306:1" rel="noopener">Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH)</a>.
One-way turnover is around 13% and there is big impact expected on the stocks, especially on the deletes, and a trade of buying the expected inclusions and selling the expected exclusions could perform well.

The SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index, also know as the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX), is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.
ETFs benchmarked to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX) raised just over CNY 21bn at launch and assets have since swelled to CNY 28.2bn due to inflows. The large amount of assets benchmarked to stocks with low free float and trading volumes creates an ideal environment for index rebalance trades to work, as we have seen in the upcoming review which will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 December.
With a maximum of 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will get in March. Potential inclusions are Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH), Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH), Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH), Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH) and Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH).
The potential deletions are Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH), Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH), Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH), Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH) and Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH).
One-way turnover is around 13% and there is big impact expected on the stocks, especially on the deletes, and a trade of buying the expected inclusions and selling the expected exclusions could perform well.

STAR Board: STAR50 Index Rebalance March21: Rising AUM and a New Index Make an Exciting Combination

Beijing Roborock Technology  / Index Rebalance

Yesterday evening post market close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.The  inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-silicon-industry-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30349:1" rel="noopener">National Silicon Industry -A (688126 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-roborock-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30358:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Roborock Technolog-A (688169 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autel-intelligent-technolo-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30369:1" rel="noopener">Autel Intelligent Technolo-A (688208 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-microelect-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30396:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Microelect-A (688396 CH)</a> and SMIC (688981 CH).The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-harmontronics-autom-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30315:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Harmontronics Autom-A (688022 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-worldia-diamond-tools" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30319:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-tianyishangjia-new-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30322:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Tianyishangjia New-A (688033 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-baolande-software-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30327:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Baolande Software-A (688058 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-abt-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30357:1" rel="noopener">Beijing ABT Networks Co Ltd (688168 CH)</a>.With a little more than CNY 21bn benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, there is quite an impact expected on a few stocks. One-way turnover is close to 30% and the funding flow will impact quite a few index constituents with over 1.5 days of ADV to sell. There are only 11 trading days to implementation and we do not expect a lot of pre-positions have been built up on the stocks.

Yesterday evening post market close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX). The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.The  inclusions are National Silicon Industry -A (688126 CH), Beijing Roborock Technolog-A (688169 CH), Autel Intelligent Technolo-A (688208 CH), China Resources Microelect-A (688396 CH) and SMIC (688981 CH).The deletions are Suzhou Harmontronics Autom-A (688022 CH), Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028 CH), Beijing Tianyishangjia New-A (688033 CH), Beijing Baolande Software-A (688058 CH) and Beijing ABT Networks Co Ltd (688168 CH).With a little more than CNY 21bn benchmarked to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX), there is quite an impact expected on a few stocks. One-way turnover is close to 30% and the funding flow will impact quite a few index constituents with over 1.5 days of ADV to sell. There are only 11 trading days to implementation and we do not expect a lot of pre-positions have been built up on the stocks.

STAR 50 Index Rebalance: We Thought BIG, Turns Out Its BIGGER

Last evening post market close in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Indexes released an <a href="https://www.hsi.com.hk/static/uploads/contents/en/news/indexChgNotice/20201030T100000.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">index notice</a> announcing a new Fast Entry rule for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.As one can imagine, this is being done solely to ensure the early inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> in the index. Index investors would then look at buying index futures and other derivatives on the HSCEI to play the upside. The early inclusion could also help the HSCEI to catch up with other China focused indices, where it has been a laggard for some time now.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>'s Fast Entry into the index will also mean that one stock needs to be deleted, though from the index rules it is not very clear if that would happen at the regular index review in December 2020 or March 2021.In this Insight, we take a look at the impact of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>'s inclusion in the HSCEI on the stock and what it means for the other stocks in the index.

Last evening post market close in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Indexes released an index notice announcing a new Fast Entry rule for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).As one can imagine, this is being done solely to ensure the early inclusion of Ant Group (6688 HK) in the index. Index investors would then look at buying index futures and other derivatives on the HSCEI to play the upside. The early inclusion could also help the HSCEI to catch up with other China focused indices, where it has been a laggard for some time now.Ant Group (6688 HK)'s Fast Entry into the index will also mean that one stock needs to be deleted, though from the index rules it is not very clear if that would happen at the regular index review in December 2020 or March 2021.In this Insight, we take a look at the impact of Ant Group (6688 HK)'s inclusion in the HSCEI on the stock and what it means for the other stocks in the index. 

Ant Group: Everyone Wants a Piece of The Action - HSCEI Fast Entry

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.There were 21 changes to the index at the June review, and we expect up to 24 changes in the December review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.06% and there are 4 inclusions and 11 deletions that could have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.With passive tracking products holding around US$28bn of AUM, plus another US$35bn in open interest on the listed futures, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names ahead of the rebalance announcement. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off.

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.There were 21 changes to the index at the June review, and we expect up to 24 changes in the December review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.06% and there are 4 inclusions and 11 deletions that could have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.With passive tracking products holding around US$28bn of AUM, plus another US$35bn in open interest on the listed futures, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names ahead of the rebalance announcement. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 21 Changes in June, Could Be 24 in December

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

China A50 Deterioration a Risk for Asia

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684 (17,500) where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at...

Thomas Schroeder

STAR Board: STAR50 Index Rebalance March21: Rising AUM and a New Index Make an Exciting Combination

Increasing assets benchmarked to the STAR50 index and comparatively low trading volumes on the expected inclusions and exclusions provide an ideal...

Brian Freitas

STAR 50 Index Rebalance: We Thought BIG, Turns Out Its BIGGER

The second rebalance of the STAR50 index is going be BIG with 5 additions/deletions and one-way turnover of 30%. We do not expect a lot of pre...

Brian Freitas

Ant Group: Everyone Wants a Piece of The Action - HSCEI Fast Entry

Hang Seng Indexes has introduced a Fast Entry rule for the HSCEI which ensures the inclusion of Ant Group in the index after the close of trading...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 21 Changes in June, Could Be 24 in December

There could be 24 changes to the CSI300 index at the December review with an estimated one-way turnover of 4.06%. 4 inclusions and 11 deletions are...

Brian Freitas