Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, CNOOC, Jiaxin International Resourc, Lingbao Gold, Meituan, Sinopec, CCB, Zijin Mining, HKEx, China Life.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, CNOOC, Jiaxin International Resourc, Lingbao Gold, Meituan, Sinopec, CCB, Zijin Mining, HKEx, China Life.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 13th): Tencent, CNOOC, Jiaxin International Resourc, Lingbao Gold

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Fu Shou Yuan International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fu Shou Yuan had a sharp decline in performance in 2024. The performance in recent years has often missed management guidance, which makes us question the integrity of management.</li>
<li>The “crisis” of Fu Shou Yuan has evolved from a short-term headwind to the failure of its long-term business model. Good dividends cannot conceal the problem of gloomy outlook.</li>
<li>Valuation logic is undergoing a transformation - from a leading company with "high growth/stable cash flow" to a struggling company with "weak growth/questionable profit model". 2025 performance may remain lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Fu Shou Yuan had a sharp decline in performance in 2024. The performance in recent years has often missed management guidance, which makes us question the integrity of management.
The “crisis” of Fu Shou Yuan has evolved from a short-term headwind to the failure of its long-term business model. Good dividends cannot conceal the problem of gloomy outlook.
Valuation logic is undergoing a transformation - from a leading company with "high growth/stable cash flow" to a struggling company with "weak growth/questionable profit model". 2025 performance may remain lower-than-expected.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - 2025 Outlook May Remain Sluggish Despite the Ugly 2024 Results

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)</a>'s share price rebound over the last two days may have well-reflected the special dividend proposal. It has, however, opened up the room for disappointment. </li>
<li>Assuming the same special DPS as last time, it is sitting on a 9% yield. The dividend sustainability is uncertain, and without this, it will be only 4.7% for FY25.</li>
<li>Earnings have been cut by 32.5% over the last six months on consumption downgrade. This near-term headwind will overshadow its long-term story.  </li>
</ul>



Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)'s share price rebound over the last two days may have well-reflected the special dividend proposal. It has, however, opened up the room for disappointment. 
Assuming the same special DPS as last time, it is sitting on a 9% yield. The dividend sustainability is uncertain, and without this, it will be only 4.7% for FY25.
Earnings have been cut by 32.5% over the last six months on consumption downgrade. This near-term headwind will overshadow its long-term story.  


Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal

<ul>
<li>The special dividend actually exceeded investors' expectations. As long as the dividend yield is higher than the risk-free rate, then Fu Shou Yuan is worth holding for the long term.</li>
<li>Fu Shou Yuan's 2024 full-year performance could fall short of expectations. As the business model is not as excellent as previously imagined, long-term growth rate would fall to single digit.</li>
<li>Since high valuation is unsustainable without the support of strong future growth momentum, investors who pursue for capital gains could consider taking profits by taking advantage of share price rally.</li>
</ul>


The special dividend actually exceeded investors' expectations. As long as the dividend yield is higher than the risk-free rate, then Fu Shou Yuan is worth holding for the long term.
Fu Shou Yuan's 2024 full-year performance could fall short of expectations. As the business model is not as excellent as previously imagined, long-term growth rate would fall to single digit.
Since high valuation is unsustainable without the support of strong future growth momentum, investors who pursue for capital gains could consider taking profits by taking advantage of share price rally.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) - The Special Dividend Beat Expectations, but Concerns Remain

<ul>
<li>Fu Shou Yuan's performance in full-year 2024 is likely to fall short of expectations. The current pain point is declining performance growth due to difficulty of expanding beyond Shanghai region.</li>
<li>If Fu Shou Yuan's dividends/stock buybacks are lower-than-expected, we don't think the stock is worth holding for the long term, since long-term revenue growth rate would fall to single digit.</li>
<li>Since high growth is difficult to achieve, it’s better to buy at a low price (e.g. PE of 10x).When valuation bounces back to 15x PE, investors could consider taking profits.</li>
</ul>


Fu Shou Yuan's performance in full-year 2024 is likely to fall short of expectations. The current pain point is declining performance growth due to difficulty of expanding beyond Shanghai region.
If Fu Shou Yuan's dividends/stock buybacks are lower-than-expected, we don't think the stock is worth holding for the long term, since long-term revenue growth rate would fall to single digit.
Since high growth is difficult to achieve, it’s better to buy at a low price (e.g. PE of 10x).When valuation bounces back to 15x PE, investors could consider taking profits.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted

China

Fu Shou Yuan International provides burial and funeral services, along with other related services, across the People's Republic of China. Its core activities include selling burial plots, offering cemetery maintenance, and planning and hosting funeral arrangements. The company also manufactures and sells cremation devices and provides education services. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK)

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 13th): Tencent, CNOOC, Jiaxin International Resourc, Lingbao Gold

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), CNOOC (883 HK), Jiaxin International...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - 2025 Outlook May Remain Sluggish Despite the Ugly 2024 Results

Based on 25H1 Profit Warning, Fu Shou Yuan will record a loss attributable to owners of the Company. Goodwill impairment/weak revenue led to lower...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal

Fu Shou Yuan disappointed with a 50-53% YoY decline in earnings in FY24, meaning that earnings plunged massively by 70-78% YoY in 2H24. The company...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) - The Special Dividend Beat Expectations, but Concerns Remain

Fu Shou Yuan's special dividend exceeded expectations, but 2024 results would be unsatisfactory. Once dividends are below risk-free rate, we don't...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted

The special dividend this time exceeded expectations, thus driving up the share price.However, since Fu Shou Yuan’s future revenue growth rate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 13th): Tencent, CNOOC, Jiaxin International Resourc, Lingbao Gold

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), CNOOC (883 HK), Jiaxin International...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - 2025 Outlook May Remain Sluggish Despite the Ugly 2024 Results

Based on 25H1 Profit Warning, Fu Shou Yuan will record a loss attributable to owners of the Company. Goodwill impairment/weak revenue led to lower...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal

Fu Shou Yuan disappointed with a 50-53% YoY decline in earnings in FY24, meaning that earnings plunged massively by 70-78% YoY in 2H24. The company...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) - The Special Dividend Beat Expectations, but Concerns Remain

​Fu Shou Yuan's special dividend exceeded expectations, but 2024 results would be unsatisfactory. Once dividends are below risk-free rate, we don't...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted

The special dividend this time exceeded expectations, thus driving up the share price.However, since Fu Shou Yuan’s future revenue growth rate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan's special dividend exceeded expectations, but 2024 results would be unsatisfactory. Once dividends are below risk-free rate, we don't...