European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.</li>
</ul>


MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils margins stay more mixed but mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain firm output of the lubricants feedstock.</li><li>Fob Asia light-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil extends rise, while heavy-grades stay more rangebound.</li><li>FOB Asia Group II light-grade price-premium to gasoil rises to highest since H1 June 2025.</li></ul>

Global base oils margins stay more mixed but mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain firm output of the lubricants feedstock.Fob Asia light-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil extends rise, while heavy-grades stay more rangebound.FOB Asia Group II light-grade price-premium to gasoil rises to highest since H1 June 2025.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 11 August

<ul><li>US Group III 4cSt base oils price-premium to Group II light grades falls at end-July for first time in three months, before extending dip in August 2025.</li><li>Asia’s Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group II light grades starts trending lower from late-June 2025.</li><li>Europe Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group I and Group II light grades continues to edge higher after protracted slump since early-2023.</li></ul>

US Group III 4cSt base oils price-premium to Group II light grades falls at end-July for first time in three months, before extending dip in August 2025.Asia’s Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group II light grades starts trending lower from late-June 2025.Europe Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group I and Group II light grades continues to edge higher after protracted slump since early-2023.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 11 August

<ul><li>US Group II light-grade export-price premium to vacuum gasoil holds close to lows in Q1 2025.</li><li>Lower base oils margins and drop in outright export prices suggest recent tightness of light-grade supplies is easing.</li><li>Drop in export prices facilitates removal of any such surplus volumes, keeping fundamentals balanced for longer in domestic market.</li></ul>

US Group II light-grade export-price premium to vacuum gasoil holds close to lows in Q1 2025.Lower base oils margins and drop in outright export prices suggest recent tightness of light-grade supplies is easing.Drop in export prices facilitates removal of any such surplus volumes, keeping fundamentals balanced for longer in domestic market.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August

Germany

FUCHS SE manufactures lubricants and related specialty products. The Company refines and produces industrial and automotive lubricants, hydraulic oils, greases, and polishing products, as well as biodegradable oils. FUCHS markets its products worldwide.

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FUCHS (FPE GR)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

Across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe, share-price spreads have mainly tightened. Convergence plays: MFE A/B as A votes rise; TIM savings...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 11 August

Global base oils margins stay more mixed but mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain firm output of the lubricants...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 11 August

US Group III 4cSt base oils price-premium to Group II light grades falls at end-July for first time in three months, before extending dip in...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August

US Group II light-grade export-price premium to vacuum gasoil holds close to lows in Q1 2025. Lower base oils margins and drop in outright export...

Base Oil News

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