European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.
Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.
Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.</li><li>Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.</li><li>Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.</li><li>Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.</li></ul>

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>US base oils export-price premium to VGO falls close to lowest level this year.</li><li>Price-premiums fall to bottom of relatively narrow range since late last year.</li><li>Narrow price-range over extended period suggested that any pressure from surplus supply remained manageable during that period.</li></ul>

US base oils export-price premium to VGO falls close to lowest level this year.Price-premiums fall to bottom of relatively narrow range since late last year.Narrow price-range over extended period suggested that any pressure from surplus supply remained manageable during that period.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>US base oils demand could ease in face of downward price-pressure and healthy availability of supply.</li><li>Buyers that built stocks as buffer against supply-disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season could start to tap those volumes before seeking additional supplies.</li><li>Demand could face more downward pressure if buyers are wary about exposure to further drop in prices.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could ease in face of downward price-pressure and healthy availability of supply.Buyers that built stocks as buffer against supply-disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season could start to tap those volumes before seeking additional supplies.Demand could face more downward pressure if buyers are wary about exposure to further drop in prices.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 September

Germany

FUCHS SE manufactures lubricants and related specialty products. The Company refines and produces industrial and automotive lubricants, hydraulic oils, greases, and polishing products, as well as biodegradable oils. FUCHS markets its products worldwide.

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FUCHS (FPE GR)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

This month’s color: MFE A/B narrows on ProSieben; VW prefs outpace ords; Atlas Copco & BMW tighten; Carlsberg B and SSAB B widen; TIM savings bid...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia,...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025. Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 September

US base oils export-price premium to VGO falls close to lowest level this year. Price-premiums fall to bottom of relatively narrow range since...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 September

US base oils demand could ease in face of downward price-pressure and healthy availability of supply. Buyers that built stocks as buffer against...

Base Oil News

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