Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

<ul>
<li>Japan’s food retail sector is worth ¥55.8 trillion and is undergoing fast consolidation. If you are investing in Japanese food retailers/brands, this in-depth review will provide context and key trends. </li>
<li>National chains are finally displacing regional operators through M&amp;A and organic expansion – already, the top five food retailers control 29.5% of the market.</li>
<li>Private label is eroding national brand share as inflation bites and supermarkets are replacing fresh foods with higher margin deli, providing significant margin growth.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s food retail sector is worth ¥55.8 trillion and is undergoing fast consolidation. If you are investing in Japanese food retailers/brands, this in-depth review will provide context and key trends. 
National chains are finally displacing regional operators through M&amp;A and organic expansion – already, the top five food retailers control 29.5% of the market.
Private label is eroding national brand share as inflation bites and supermarkets are replacing fresh foods with higher margin deli, providing significant margin growth.


Consolidation in Japanese Food Retail as Top 5 Grab 30% Share

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16344:1" rel="noopener">Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP)</a> announced a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP)</a> at JPY3,780, a 51.2% premium to the last close of JPY2,500.  </li>
<li>Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.</li>
<li>The offer is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. The required minority acceptance rate to meet the lower limit is achievable. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP) announced a tender offer from Life Corp (8194 JP) at JPY3,780, a 51.2% premium to the last close of JPY2,500.  
Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.
The offer is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. The required minority acceptance rate to meet the lower limit is achievable. This is a done deal. 


Albis (7475 JP): Life Corp (8194 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY3,780

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pair from Monday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weathernews-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16991:1" rel="noopener">Weathernews (4825 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-bottlers-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20051:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)</a>. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/489/original/2020-10-06_05-34-42.png?1601930214" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163489"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/490/original/2020-10-06_05-35-26.png?1601930263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163490"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<div><p>DAILY STATS</p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>12 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 33% Positive / 8% Neutral / 58% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -12.5% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 50% Positive /20% Neutral / 30% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 20% Positive / 0% Neutral / 80% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.1 point</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pair from Monday's announcements is Weathernews (4825 JP) and Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP). 
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS

12 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 33% Positive / 8% Neutral / 58% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -2.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -12.5% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%


10 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 50% Positive /20% Neutral / 30% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 20% Positive / 0% Neutral / 80% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.1 point



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

Japan

FUJI CO., LTD. operates shopping center chain mainly in the Shikoku and the Chugoku regions.  The Company mainly sells foodstuffs, clothing, and sundry goods.  Fuji also operates home entertainment stores, BACH, which sells books, CDs, videos, and video games.  The Company also operates sports fitness centers. The Company provides credit card service.

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Fuji Co Ltd (8278 JP)

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Albis (7475 JP): Life Corp (8194 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY3,780

Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges...

Arun George

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair is home centre Shimachu (8184 JP) for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Consolidation in Japanese Food Retail as Top 5 Grab 30% Share

​Japan's food retail sector is rapidly consolidating, with national chains taking over regional operators. Private label and higher margin products...

Michael Causton

Albis (7475 JP): Life Corp (8194 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY3,780

Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges...

Arun George

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair is home centre Shimachu (8184 JP) for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper...

Campbell Gunn

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Japan's food retail sector is rapidly consolidating, with national chains taking over regional operators. Private label and higher margin products...

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan