Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-denso-6902-reportedly-made-a-1-3trln-takeover-proposal-to-rohm-6963-light-iffy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:225967" rel="noopener">[Japan M&amp;A] Denso (6902) Reportedly Made a ¥1.3trln Takeover Proposal to Rohm (6963). Light &amp; Iffy.</a>, the question is not Denso's desire but Rohm's willingness. </li>
<li>Denso may have a problem paying the right price to get Rohm, but Rohm may simply not wnat to be got. And I discussed the Toshiba angle. </li>
<li>Today the Nikkei reveals that Rohm and Toshiba are considering integrating their power semiconductor businesses. This is NOT a surprise. But it may feel like it. </li>
</ul>


As discussed in [Japan M&amp;A] Denso (6902) Reportedly Made a ¥1.3trln Takeover Proposal to Rohm (6963). Light &amp; Iffy., the question is not Denso's desire but Rohm's willingness. 
Denso may have a problem paying the right price to get Rohm, but Rohm may simply not wnat to be got. And I discussed the Toshiba angle. 
Today the Nikkei reveals that Rohm and Toshiba are considering integrating their power semiconductor businesses. This is NOT a surprise. But it may feel like it. 


[Japan M&A] Now Rohm (6963) And Toshiba Mulling Power Semis Integration, Thwarting Denso?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy (EU US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a> in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index. </li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.

Encore Energy (EU US) will replace Boss Energy (BOE AU) in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index. 
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Arm shifts focus to AI hardware, software, and ecosystem development beyond semiconductors.</li><li>Chinese state CRC acquires JCET, while Intel faces five crises with CEO departure.</li><li>Brightek partners with SiPhIA for automotive opportunities, as Chinese EV makers and European auto layoffs impact global supply chains.</li></ul>

Arm shifts focus to AI hardware, software, and ecosystem development beyond semiconductors.Chinese state CRC acquires JCET, while Intel faces five crises with CEO departure.Brightek partners with SiPhIA for automotive opportunities, as Chinese EV makers and European auto layoffs impact global supply chains.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Dec-2024): Arm targets AI hardware, software, ecosystem.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>Following the rally in the stock, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> trades expensive to the average and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The increase in cumulative excess volume in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> over the last 3 months far outpaces the increase in its peers.</li>
</ul>



Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
Following the rally in the stock, Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) trades expensive to the average and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.
The increase in cumulative excess volume in Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) over the last 3 months far outpaces the increase in its peers.


Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

<ul>
<li>Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.</li>
<li>If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.</li>
<li>I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.</li>
</ul>


Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.


Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Japan

FUJI ELECTRIC CO.,LTD manufactures electric machinery and electronic devices. The Company's products include automatic vending machines, factory automation equipment, and power supplies, as well as information and electronic components such as power semiconductors and integrated circuits (ICs).

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Fuji Electric (6504 JP)

[Japan M&A] Now Rohm (6963) And Toshiba Mulling Power Semis Integration, Thwarting Denso?

A Rohm-Toshiba story about integrating their power semiconductor businesses may not be an effort to thwart Denso's approach to Rohm, but it may...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade

Encore Energy replaces Boss Energy in the NUCL ETF. The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m. Few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Dec-2024): Arm targets AI hardware, software, ecosystem.

Arm expands focus beyond semiconductors to include AI hardware, software, and ecosystem development; Intel faces crises, Brightek joins SiPhIA,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Fujikura being added to passive portfolios at the end of Nov. Positioning in the stock is larger than in...

Brian Freitas

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Bidders are approaching 2nd Round deadlines, and news/comments are starting to seep out. Expect more. I expect a decision at/after H1 results. If...

Travis Lundy

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