Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>10 days ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> announced its 18th ¥50bn buyback in 15yrs. They have a pattern, both in execution and outperformance. </li>
<li>Historically, they are reasonably aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. </li>
<li>Here I look at both - buyback cycle performance and cycle outperformance. Good so far, and now I see a tactical trade but it's not overwhelming.</li>
</ul>


10 days ago Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced its 18th ¥50bn buyback in 15yrs. They have a pattern, both in execution and outperformance. 
Historically, they are reasonably aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. 
Here I look at both - buyback cycle performance and cycle outperformance. Good so far, and now I see a tactical trade but it's not overwhelming.


Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance

<ul>
<li>Canon has conducted 18 buybacks in the last 15 years. Every single one has been the same size. And the parameter-setting and how they are executed is... particular.</li>
<li>For those with Canon to execute, using the information about patterns may be helpful. </li>
<li>For those interested in a trade, there may be one here.</li>
</ul>


Canon has conducted 18 buybacks in the last 15 years. Every single one has been the same size. And the parameter-setting and how they are executed is... particular.
For those with Canon to execute, using the information about patterns may be helpful. 
For those interested in a trade, there may be one here.


Canon Buyback - 18th in a Row at the Same Size, But This Time With a Running Head Start

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener"></a>Fujifilm delivered its 4Q and full-year FY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 15.0% and 63.2% YoY to ¥764.7bn (vs consensus ¥715.7bn) and ¥70.4bn (vs consensus ¥62.5bn) respectively.</li>
<li>The company’s full-year revenue and OP were above its own guidance as well as consensus, and we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)</a> ’s guidance for FY03/2024E is too conservative.</li>
<li>The market continues to value Fujifilm as an imaging company and not in line with healthcare peers suggesting there is significant upside to the current valuation multiples.</li>
</ul>



Fujifilm delivered its 4Q and full-year FY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 15.0% and 63.2% YoY to ¥764.7bn (vs consensus ¥715.7bn) and ¥70.4bn (vs consensus ¥62.5bn) respectively.
The company’s full-year revenue and OP were above its own guidance as well as consensus, and we think FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) ’s guidance for FY03/2024E is too conservative.
The market continues to value Fujifilm as an imaging company and not in line with healthcare peers suggesting there is significant upside to the current valuation multiples.


Fujifilm FQ4: Strong Earnings Beat and There's Further Upside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)</a> delivered 3QFY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 13.5% and 4.1% YoY respectively to JPY744.4bn (consensus JPY717.1bn) and JPY81.8bn (consensus JPY80.0bn).</li>
<li>Covid-19 related projects running its course had a slight impact on  healthcare segment but we would not be too worried as new product launches and markets will offset that decline.</li>
<li>Market continues to value Fujifilm as an image company and not a healthcare stock and there is more than 30% upside to the current share price.</li>
</ul>



FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) delivered 3QFY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 13.5% and 4.1% YoY respectively to JPY744.4bn (consensus JPY717.1bn) and JPY81.8bn (consensus JPY80.0bn).
Covid-19 related projects running its course had a slight impact on  healthcare segment but we would not be too worried as new product launches and markets will offset that decline.
Market continues to value Fujifilm as an image company and not a healthcare stock and there is more than 30% upside to the current share price.


Fujifilm: Robust Quarter; Recent M&A to Drive Healthcare and Materials Biz Further

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> aspires to be a world leader in drug discovery and development to address unmet medical needs by leveraging on proprietary PDPS technology, a peptide discovery platform.</li>
<li>Driven by expanding research collaboration programs and progressing pipelines, Peptidream guided for revenue of ¥13–15B from drug discovery and development business in 2022, up from ¥9.4B in 2021.</li>
<li>Foray into Radiopharma adds a regular revenue stream. Peptidream expects the business to report revenue of ~¥11.5B and remain marginally profitable for 2022.</li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) aspires to be a world leader in drug discovery and development to address unmet medical needs by leveraging on proprietary PDPS technology, a peptide discovery platform.
Driven by expanding research collaboration programs and progressing pipelines, Peptidream guided for revenue of ¥13–15B from drug discovery and development business in 2022, up from ¥9.4B in 2021.
Foray into Radiopharma adds a regular revenue stream. Peptidream expects the business to report revenue of ~¥11.5B and remain marginally profitable for 2022.


Peptidream (4587 JP): Rising Drug Discovery Collaborations To Drive Growth; New Revenue Stream Added

Japan

FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation develops, sells and services Imaging, Information, and Document Solutions.  Its products include color films, digital cameras, photofinishing products and equipment.  The Group also manufactures medical and graphic art use equipment and materials, FPD materials, and optical devices, and provides services on office copy machines, printers, and related equipment.

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FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)

Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance

The Canon buyback started 7 trading days ago and is likely nearly done. EPS forecasts are on the up vs peers. Stock is outperforming. There is a...

Travis Lundy

Canon Buyback - 18th in a Row at the Same Size, But This Time With a Running Head Start

Canon (7751) reported salutary Q1 earnings, and revised up FY forecasts. The stock responded well vs Peers. Peers have since reported, but it...

Travis Lundy

Fujifilm FQ4: Strong Earnings Beat and There's Further Upside

Fujifilm's FQ4 earnings beat consensus by a huge margin. Market continues to value Fujifilm as an imaging services stock and not as a healthcare...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Fujifilm: Robust Quarter; Recent M&A to Drive Healthcare and Materials Biz Further

Covid-19 related projects running its course has had a slight impact on the healthcare segment but we would not be too worried. Recent M&A in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Peptidream (4587 JP): Rising Drug Discovery Collaborations To Drive Growth; New Revenue Stream Added

In long-term, Peptidream targets ¥100B revenue from ¥9.4B in 2021. While base business is poised for steady growth via expansion of collaboration...

Tina Banerjee

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