Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market sees testing as AI’s first casualty, but SHIFT is building an AI-powered Trojan horse into Japan’s ¥56tn modernization market.</li>
<li>Near-Term earnings are depressed by investment, hiring normalization, consolidation noise, and possible Rise impairment; none changes cash flow, long-run unit economics, or the path to 24% EBITDA CAGR.</li>
<li>At 9x EV/EBITDA and ~12x FY8/27 EPS, the stock discounts execution failure and permanent impairment; if conversion works even modestly, the current multiple is mispriced.</li>
</ul>


The market sees testing as AI’s first casualty, but SHIFT is building an AI-powered Trojan horse into Japan’s ¥56tn modernization market.
Near-Term earnings are depressed by investment, hiring normalization, consolidation noise, and possible Rise impairment; none changes cash flow, long-run unit economics, or the path to 24% EBITDA CAGR.
At 9x EV/EBITDA and ~12x FY8/27 EPS, the stock discounts execution failure and permanent impairment; if conversion works even modestly, the current multiple is mispriced.


Shift (3697): An AI Strategy Just Crazy Enough to Work

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A rather inauspicious start to the year and equities tumbling 2.5% in the first trading week</li>
<li>Japan should be a top performing market in 2025 - it is undervalued, buoyed by reforms and has strong domestic fund flow</li>
<li>Wage growth is key this year, setting stage for a stronger economy. Semiconductor stocks were the star performers this week! </li>
</ul>


A rather inauspicious start to the year and equities tumbling 2.5% in the first trading week
Japan should be a top performing market in 2025 - it is undervalued, buoyed by reforms and has strong domestic fund flow
Wage growth is key this year, setting stage for a stronger economy. Semiconductor stocks were the star performers this week! 


Japan Strategy Weekly | 3 Reasons to Buy Japan in 2025

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 2.7% this week, closing at 37,913 points, due to political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election, rising global bond yields, and disappointing economic data</li>
<li>Japan's weakening services and manufacturing sectors, as indicated by declining PMIs and easing inflation, highlight slowing domestic demand and economic uncertainty, raising concerns about future growth prospects.</li>
<li>Konica Minolta (4902): Gained 25% after activist investor, Effissimo Capital, declared a significant 5.8% stake in the company.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 2.7% this week, closing at 37,913 points, due to political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election, rising global bond yields, and disappointing economic data
Japan's weakening services and manufacturing sectors, as indicated by declining PMIs and easing inflation, highlight slowing domestic demand and economic uncertainty, raising concerns about future growth prospects.
Konica Minolta (4902): Gained 25% after activist investor, Effissimo Capital, declared a significant 5.8% stake in the company.


Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM
NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!


Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Japan

Fujitsu General Ltd. manufactures air-conditioning units, refrigerators, and information-communication equipment. The products include air conditioners, and purifiers. The Company also manufactures computer software and electronic devices.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Fujitsu General (6755 JP)

Shift (3697): An AI Strategy Just Crazy Enough to Work

The market sees testing as AI’s first casualty, but SHIFT is building an AI-powered Trojan horse into Japan’s ¥56tn modernization market. 9x EV...

Michael Allen

Japan Strategy Weekly | 3 Reasons to Buy Japan in 2025

Equities stumble in 2025's first week, but Japan's undervalued market and wage growth potential offer hope for a stronger economy. Semiconductor...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

SPX gains ahead of 4th July holidays; NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs; JP land prices...

Mark Chadwick

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shift (3697): An AI Strategy Just Crazy Enough to Work

The market sees testing as AI’s first casualty, but SHIFT is building an AI-powered Trojan horse into Japan’s ¥56tn modernization market. 9x EV...

Michael Allen

Japan Strategy Weekly | 3 Reasons to Buy Japan in 2025

​Equities stumble in 2025's first week, but Japan's undervalued market and wage growth potential offer hope for a stronger economy. Semiconductor...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

​Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

SPX gains ahead of 4th July holidays; NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs; JP land prices...

Mark Chadwick

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Equities stumble in 2025's first week, but Japan's undervalued market and wage growth potential offer hope for a stronger economy. Semiconductor...

Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...