Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>Nearly 5mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 12wks ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 2.6% wider than at narrowest. In May, gap risk narrowed as Shinko underperformed Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 5mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 12wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 2.6% wider than at narrowest. In May, gap risk narrowed as Shinko underperformed Ibiden.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early June 2024 Update

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>15wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 8wks ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 3.6% wider than at narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms, Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
15wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 8wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 3.6% wider than at narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms, Ibiden.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early May 2024 Update

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. </li>
<li>The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a>’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. </li>
<li>The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. </li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider. </li>
<li>12wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 5wks ago, reco'd trimming.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, and gross spreads had come in 5+% on JSR's approval. Spreads are now 3% wider than their narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider. 
12wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 5wks ago, reco'd trimming.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, and gross spreads had come in 5+% on JSR's approval. Spreads are now 3% wider than their narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Update

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a> launches a US$78 million IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intellicentrics-global-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40901:1" rel="noopener">IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) launches a US$78 million IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK), Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) - Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early June 2024 Update

Ibiden outperformed Shinko quite sharply in the last few weeks bringing the Shinko/Ibiden ratio back below their forward EPS ratio. Gap Risk is...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early May 2024 Update

Time has passed, lifting annualised return to deal completion, but Shinko Electric has still larger gap risk as Ibiden's price/guidance has fallen...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

The deal break risks remain low, with the China SAMR timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add.

Arun George

Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Update

The JIC deal for Shinko Electric still has ~6mos to go until it gets settled. And that is if the schedule goes to plan. China delay risk is real,...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) - Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Chilled and Frozen Logistics, JSR, Shinko Electric, IntelliCentrics, Sciclone Pharma,...

Arun George

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