Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>SK Hynix strengthens partnership with TSMC to advance HBM technology and more, enhancing their collaboration in the semiconductor industry.</li><li>Meta is investing in XR ecosystem for future smart devices, as indicated by DIGITIMES Research, indicating a shift towards immersive technology in their product roadmap.</li><li>Super Micro experiences revenue shortfall due to accounting issues and GPU delays, while Intel contemplates splitting its business amidst complex challenges.</li></ul>

SK Hynix strengthens partnership with TSMC to advance HBM technology and more, enhancing their collaboration in the semiconductor industry.Meta is investing in XR ecosystem for future smart devices, as indicated by DIGITIMES Research, indicating a shift towards immersive technology in their product roadmap.Super Micro experiences revenue shortfall due to accounting issues and GPU delays, while Intel contemplates splitting its business amidst complex challenges.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2024): HBM + beyond: SK Hynix partners with TSMC

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At first glance, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.</li>
<li>The aftermath of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. </li>
<li>Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.</li>
</ul>


At first glance, the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.
The aftermath of China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. 
Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>Nearly 7mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was <em>negative</em> as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 5mos ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Ibiden has now underperformed Shinko by 25+% in 2-plus weeks. GAP RISK is higher but this is a short-timer. HUGE yield to "expected" start date, so everyone assumes a delay. </li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 7mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 5mos ago, recommended taking profits.
Ibiden has now underperformed Shinko by 25+% in 2-plus weeks. GAP RISK is higher but this is a short-timer. HUGE yield to "expected" start date, so everyone assumes a delay. 


Update: Shinko Electric (6967) Shorter-Dated and Break Risk Small but GAP RISK Now Much Higher

Singapore Telecommunications / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>XPeng and Baidu leading China's autonomous driving technology advancements in 2023</li><li>Malaysia's semiconductor sector set for growth in 3Q24 with talent recruitment and AI integration</li><li>Singtel partners with SK Telecom for 6G and AI innovation, while automakers persist in V2X development efforts</li></ul>

XPeng and Baidu leading China's autonomous driving technology advancements in 2023Malaysia's semiconductor sector set for growth in 3Q24 with talent recruitment and AI integrationSingtel partners with SK Telecom for 6G and AI innovation, while automakers persist in V2X development efforts

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China's auto exports, 2023.

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>Nearly 6mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 16+wks ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Gross spread is now 4.6% but time is shorter so annualised is 10+% even out to December launch.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 6mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 16+wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Gross spread is now 4.6% but time is shorter so annualised is 10+% even out to December launch.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update

Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2024): HBM + beyond: SK Hynix partners with TSMC

Tech companies like SK Hynix, TSMC, Meta, Intel, and Samsung are making strategic moves in the industry while facing challenges like revenue...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

The aftermath of the China TCM deal break has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event...

Arun George

Update: Shinko Electric (6967) Shorter-Dated and Break Risk Small but GAP RISK Now Much Higher

In the recent market downturn, Ibiden has sharply underperformed Shinko Electric. There may be no new BREAK RISK but GAP RISK in case of break is...

Travis Lundy

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China's auto exports, 2023.

China advances in autonomous driving tech; Malaysia's semiconductor sector grows with AI; Taiwan backs AI supercomputers; Google Cloud Taiwan faces...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update

Shinko Gap Risk is probably slightly higher than last month as gross arb return starts to drop as this deal becomes a short-timer (one hopes)....

Travis Lundy

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