Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.4% as of Jul 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, health care and offset by communication services, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.4% as of Jul 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, health care and offset by communication services, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 5th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Luxshare Precision Industry / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 8.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Luxshare, CMB, and CATL. AH Premia now lowest in 4yrs.</li>
<li>Foreign attitudes to HK stocks different than to mainland stocks. This may continue.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 8.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Luxshare, CMB, and CATL. AH Premia now lowest in 4yrs.
Foreign attitudes to HK stocks different than to mainland stocks. This may continue.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024):

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.</li>
<li>The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/chinese-miners-in-2-5b-payday-from-australian-lithium-holdings-20240404-p5fhix" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR article</a> on China’s Australian lithium holdings. </li>
<li>FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> small indirect interest in Andover, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a> precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. </li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.
The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s AFR article on China’s Australian lithium holdings. 
FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power International (LPI AU) precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. 


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer <em>every day</em> since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.</li>
<li>Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards "The People Must Endure."</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.
Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards "The People Must Endure."


A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

China

Ganfeng Lithium is a global leader in the lithium industry, specializing in the production and sales of lithium products and lithium batteries. Its business spans the entire lithium value chain, including upstream lithium resource development, midstream lithium refining and metal smelting, and downstream lithium battery manufacturing and recycling. The company's products, such as lithium salts and batteries, are widely used in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, consumer electronics, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Ganfeng Lithium was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, China.

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Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 5th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism,Ganfeng Lithium,China East Air,Petrochina.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024):

NORTHBOUND net flows continue to be positive, belying the mainland story that foreigners are being bad. But they aren't keeping pace with HK.

Travis Lundy

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi's small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained...

Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

The Quiddity AH Monitor shows A/H Pair discount/premia and their history, as well as the SB and NB flows and position/history, and a recommended...

Travis Lundy

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