Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.</li>
<li>We are getting near-term cautious on Technology and semiconductors (XLK, SOXX), as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and XLK display near-term bearish failed breakouts below $745 and $197, respectively.</li>
<li>These breaks are our signal to be neutral/cautious in the near-term, as it suggests a continuation of the 5-month consolidation and potential test of the June/July lows</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.
We are getting near-term cautious on Technology and semiconductors (XLK, SOXX), as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and XLK display near-term bearish failed breakouts below $745 and $197, respectively.
These breaks are our signal to be neutral/cautious in the near-term, as it suggests a continuation of the 5-month consolidation and potential test of the June/July lows


False Breakout on QQQ and XLK?; Monitor Yesterday's Lows for Near-Term Direction

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Gap Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales of $3.7 billion, down 2% year-over-year, while comparable sales declined 1%.</li><li>Despite revenue pressure, particularly at Old Navy and Athleta, earnings per share exceeded expectations, supported by gross margin management and disciplined cost control.</li><li>The Gap brand maintained momentum with comparable sales increasing 10%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of positive comps.</li></ul>

Gap Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales of $3.7 billion, down 2% year-over-year, while comparable sales declined 1%.Despite revenue pressure, particularly at Old Navy and Athleta, earnings per share exceeded expectations, supported by gross margin management and disciplined cost control.The Gap brand maintained momentum with comparable sales increasing 10%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of positive comps.

Gap's $600 Million Buyback — Can Brand Momentum Keep The Reset Moving?

<ul><li>Gap gave investors plenty to celebrate after its latest earnings report, sending the stock up 14% as stronger-than-expected profits, higher full-year earnings guidance and a leadership change at Old Navy revived confidence in the retailer’s turnaround.</li><li>Yet underneath the rally sits a striking divide.</li><li>The flagship Gap brand is enjoying one of its strongest runs in years, with comparable sales rising 10%, customers returning, discounting falling and younger shoppers showing renewed interest.</li></ul>

Gap gave investors plenty to celebrate after its latest earnings report, sending the stock up 14% as stronger-than-expected profits, higher full-year earnings guidance and a leadership change at Old Navy revived confidence in the retailer’s turnaround.Yet underneath the rally sits a striking divide.The flagship Gap brand is enjoying one of its strongest runs in years, with comparable sales rising 10%, customers returning, discounting falling and younger shoppers showing renewed interest.

Gap Stock Just Jumped 14%—But Can Old Navy Ruin The Comeback?

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Industria De Diseno Textil SA / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bangladesh's garment industry grapples with a 14% export dip, prompting worker unrest over wage discrepancies.</li>
<li>Efforts by a wage board fall short as workers advocate for a Tk25,000 minimum, seeking fair compensation.</li>
<li>Economic turbulence looms as 3,500 factories, constituting 85% of exports, confront closure amid widespread unrest.</li>
</ul>


Bangladesh's garment industry grapples with a 14% export dip, prompting worker unrest over wage discrepancies.
Efforts by a wage board fall short as workers advocate for a Tk25,000 minimum, seeking fair compensation.
Economic turbulence looms as 3,500 factories, constituting 85% of exports, confront closure amid widespread unrest.


Beyond Fashion: Unraveling Bangladesh's Garment Industry Challenges

United States

The Gap, Inc., is an international specialty retailer operating retail and outlet stores.  The Company sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children. The Gap operates stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Japan.

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Gap Inc/The (GPS US)

False Breakout on QQQ and XLK?; Monitor Yesterday's Lows for Near-Term Direction

Pre-Market Report: Bearish False Breakouts on $QQQ and $XLK signal it is time to get near-term cautious as the 5-month consolidation continues....

Vermilion Research

Gap's $600 Million Buyback — Can Brand Momentum Keep The Reset Moving?

Gap Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales of $3.7 billion, down 2% year-over-year, while comparable sales declined 1%. Despite...

Baptista Research

Gap Stock Just Jumped 14%—But Can Old Navy Ruin The Comeback?

Gap gave investors plenty to celebrate after its latest earnings report, sending the stock up 14% as stronger-than-expected profits, higher...

Baptista Research

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Beyond Fashion: Unraveling Bangladesh's Garment Industry Challenges

Sheikh Hasina Resignation, Army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman's new interim government formation -After a meeting of senior military and political leaders...

Nimish Maheshwari

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