Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GTX reported results affirming our investment thesis on how the business can generate substantial free cash flow with an outlook of little to no sales growth</li>
<li>Ahead of the results, we had brought down our numbers on the expectation a flattish year could result in sales and adjusted EBITDA being more in line with 2023</li>
<li>GTX issued a 2024 guidance suggesting we would be towards the lower end of their guidance range as new programs should hold sales closer to 2023 levels</li>
</ul>


GTX reported results affirming our investment thesis on how the business can generate substantial free cash flow with an outlook of little to no sales growth
Ahead of the results, we had brought down our numbers on the expectation a flattish year could result in sales and adjusted EBITDA being more in line with 2023
GTX issued a 2024 guidance suggesting we would be towards the lower end of their guidance range as new programs should hold sales closer to 2023 levels


<ul>
<li>In the weeks since our last update on GTX, there have been several quarterly reports suggesting a cooling in inventory purchases.</li>
<li>We are reducing our 2024 estimates to better align expectations with the reality of how companies related to the auto industry have been reporting.  </li>
<li>In the year ahead, GTX should benefit from a higher Euro to US Dollar exchange rate and the auto industry depending less on electric vehicles and more on hybrid.</li>
</ul>


In the weeks since our last update on GTX, there have been several quarterly reports suggesting a cooling in inventory purchases.
We are reducing our 2024 estimates to better align expectations with the reality of how companies related to the auto industry have been reporting.  
In the year ahead, GTX should benefit from a higher Euro to US Dollar exchange rate and the auto industry depending less on electric vehicles and more on hybrid.


<ul>
<li>A slowing in production of electric vehicles should have a positive contribution on Garrett Motion (GTX) in 2024.</li>
<li>The change in electric vehicle production as a mix of the car industry’s total production implies internal combustion engines are not likely to erode as quickly as investors were forecasting.  </li>
<li>For fourth quarter 2023, a quick recovery in the Euro should help offset a portion of the negative effects GTX experienced in the third quarter of 2023.</li>
</ul>


A slowing in production of electric vehicles should have a positive contribution on Garrett Motion (GTX) in 2024.
The change in electric vehicle production as a mix of the car industry’s total production implies internal combustion engines are not likely to erode as quickly as investors were forecasting.  
For fourth quarter 2023, a quick recovery in the Euro should help offset a portion of the negative effects GTX experienced in the third quarter of 2023.


<ul>
<li>GTX continued to showcase its ability to generate free cash flow even though the Euro weakened sequentially. Ahead of the results, we had reduced our estimates citing the stronger Dollar.</li>
<li>GTX held an investor day following the quarterly results highlighting how the variable cost structure allows the Company to maintain profitability and generate free cash flow</li>
<li>GTX has introduced several new turbochargers for the light vehicle, commercial, and industrial markets. GTX used the investor day to introduce the GT80</li>
</ul>


GTX continued to showcase its ability to generate free cash flow even though the Euro weakened sequentially. Ahead of the results, we had reduced our estimates citing the stronger Dollar.
GTX held an investor day following the quarterly results highlighting how the variable cost structure allows the Company to maintain profitability and generate free cash flow
GTX has introduced several new turbochargers for the light vehicle, commercial, and industrial markets. GTX used the investor day to introduce the GT80


<ul>
<li>GTX is scheduled to report third quarter results on October 24, 2023, as the Company continues to make strides in expanding its product offering</li>
<li>The third quarter results should serve as a catalyst since the Company was expected to repurchase shares and reduce its debt balance during the period</li>
<li>The impact from the ongoing strike in North America is likely to have minimal impact to GTX if it were to continue for an extended period of time</li>
</ul>


GTX is scheduled to report third quarter results on October 24, 2023, as the Company continues to make strides in expanding its product offering
The third quarter results should serve as a catalyst since the Company was expected to repurchase shares and reduce its debt balance during the period
The impact from the ongoing strike in North America is likely to have minimal impact to GTX if it were to continue for an extended period of time


Switzerland

Garrett Motion Inc. operates as an automobile technology provider. The Company offers turbocharging, electric boosting, and automotive software solutions. Garrett Motion serves customers worldwide.

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GTX: Previewing with a Weak Euro

The weaker Euro could be a bigger headwind for GTX than the ongoing auto strike. The Big 3 represent a small portion of GTX's overall sales figures...

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