Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.</li>
<li>Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). </li>
<li>Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.</li>
</ul>


China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.
Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). 
Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.


China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China's disappointing April-June GDP growth underscores domestic consumption weakness. Exports continue to skyrocket. Export resilience in power and automobiles, along with higher overseas margins benefit companies with sustainable foreign revenues.</li>
<li>In 2026, technology, industrials, energy have outperformed. The first two fit the theme of advanced manufacturing and technology-enablers. Combining this with robust overseas revenues, a set of stocks stand out.</li>
<li>Among these stocks, CATL, Geely, Weichai Power and CNOOC figure in our Model Portfolio.</li>
</ul>


China's disappointing April-June GDP growth underscores domestic consumption weakness. Exports continue to skyrocket. Export resilience in power and automobiles, along with higher overseas margins benefit companies with sustainable foreign revenues.
In 2026, technology, industrials, energy have outperformed. The first two fit the theme of advanced manufacturing and technology-enablers. Combining this with robust overseas revenues, a set of stocks stand out.
Among these stocks, CATL, Geely, Weichai Power and CNOOC figure in our Model Portfolio.


Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 9th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 9th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 9th): Tencent, Xiaomi, J&T Express

<ul>
<li>China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.</li>
<li>Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.</li>
<li>Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.</li>
</ul>


China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.
Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.
Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.


Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition</li><li>China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites</li><li>Analysis: Could Global Oil Shock Trigger Imported Stagflation in China?</li></ul>

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward AttritionChina’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform BitesAnalysis: Could Global Oil Shock Trigger Imported Stagflation in China?

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition 

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited is a leading Chinese automotive company primarily engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sale of passenger vehicles and related components. It offers a diverse portfolio of products including sedans, SUVs, and electric vehicles under brands such as Geely Auto, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1973.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 9th): Tencent, Xiaomi, J&T Express

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites Analysis: Could...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

​China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

​China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 9th): Tencent, Xiaomi, J&T Express

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

​Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites Analysis: Could...

Caixin Global

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...