External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)</li><li>Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jan NEV likely in line or slightly miss; Li Auto beat

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. We project Geely’s net profit in 2H22E to rise 95% HoH to RMB 3.0bn.</li><li>We estimate Geely’s FY23E net profit to rise 21% YoY to RMB 5.5bn under our assumption of 1.53mn units (vs. the company’s target of 1.65mn units).</li><li>We also forecast Geely’s new-energy vehicle’s (NEV) sales volume to surge 74% YoY in FY23E, which could be a positive catalyst for its share price.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Maintain BUY. We project Geely’s net profit in 2H22E to rise 95% HoH to RMB 3.0bn.We estimate Geely’s FY23E net profit to rise 21% YoY to RMB 5.5bn under our assumption of 1.53mn units (vs. the company’s target of 1.65mn units).We also forecast Geely’s new-energy vehicle’s (NEV) sales volume to surge 74% YoY in FY23E, which could be a positive catalyst for its share price.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – 2H22E net profit to almost double HoH

<ul><li>Upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Geely Automobile to BUY from Hold as we see progressive improvement at Zeekr and more PHEV model rollouts next year, which could boost its NEV sales to about 40% of total sales volume in FY23, on our estimates.</li><li>We value Zeekr slightly higher than Xpeng’s current market cap and Geely’s other businesses at 15x our FY23E P/E.</li><li>Zeekr is likely to end the year of 2022 with its sales target of 70,000 units achieved, which exceeds many investors’ initial expectation.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Geely Automobile to BUY from Hold as we see progressive improvement at Zeekr and more PHEV model rollouts next year, which could boost its NEV sales to about 40% of total sales volume in FY23, on our estimates.We value Zeekr slightly higher than Xpeng’s current market cap and Geely’s other businesses at 15x our FY23E P/E.Zeekr is likely to end the year of 2022 with its sales target of 70,000 units achieved, which exceeds many investors’ initial expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – PHEV could be a positive surprise in FY23

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume surged 33% YoY to 2.33mn units, 8% higher than our prior projection due to more inventories pushed to dealers than expected.</li><li>Almost 260,000 units of inventories were added into dealers in Sep 2022, the most in any Sep in history. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume surged 33% YoY to 2.33mn units, 8% higher than our prior projection due to more inventories pushed to dealers than expected.Almost 260,000 units of inventories were added into dealers in Sep 2022, the most in any Sep in history. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – 2H22E likely beat; FY23E consensus overstated

<ul><li>NIO, Xpeng miss, Li L9 exceeded 10,000 units. Both NIO and Xpeng just hit the lower bound of their 3Q22 sales guidance.</li><li>NIO’s Sep sales volume was about 1,000 units lower than our prior estimates due to sequentially declining sales volume for the ET7.</li><li>We suspect NIO’s supply chain issue is still lingering given ET7’s sufficient order backlog.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NIO, Xpeng miss, Li L9 exceeded 10,000 units. Both NIO and Xpeng just hit the lower bound of their 3Q22 sales guidance.NIO’s Sep sales volume was about 1,000 units lower than our prior estimates due to sequentially declining sales volume for the ET7.We suspect NIO’s supply chain issue is still lingering given ET7’s sufficient order backlog.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Set for NEV new-high sales in Sep and 4Q22

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

China Auto Sector – Jan NEV likely in line or slightly miss; Li Auto beat

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on...

CMB International

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – 2H22E net profit to almost double HoH

We estimate Geely’s FY23E net profit to rise 21% YoY to RMB 5.5bn under our assumption of 1.53mn units (vs. the company’s target of 1.65mn units).

CMB International

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – PHEV could be a positive surprise in FY23

Upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Geely Automobile to BUY from Hold as we see progressive improvement at Zeekr and more PHEV model rollouts next year...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – 2H22E likely beat; FY23E consensus overstated

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Set for NEV new-high sales in Sep and 4Q22

NIO’s Sep sales volume was about 1,000 units lower than our prior estimates due to sequentially declining sales volume for the ET7.

CMB International

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