External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.</li><li>Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.</li><li>Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

<ul><li>Despite a pre-buying effect in 2024, we expect China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) sales volume to be still resilient in 2025.</li><li>We also project new-energy vehicle (NEV) market share to reach 57.8% in 2025E on a retail basis, which could make NEVs become mainstream in most price segments.</li><li>While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for new trends.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite a pre-buying effect in 2024, we expect China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) sales volume to be still resilient in 2025.We also project new-energy vehicle (NEV) market share to reach 57.8% in 2025E on a retail basis, which could make NEVs become mainstream in most price segments.While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for new trends.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 2025 Outlook: Likely a replica of 2024, but more

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Despite an unexciting net profit, its SG&amp;A cost control and NEV profitability were impressive in 3Q24.</li><li>We expect the current strong NEV sales momentum to extend into 2025, leading to substantial core profit growth.</li><li>3Q24 operating profit beat. Geely’s 3Q24 revenue was 2% lower than our prior forecast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. Despite an unexciting net profit, its SG&amp;A cost control and NEV profitability were impressive in 3Q24.We expect the current strong NEV sales momentum to extend into 2025, leading to substantial core profit growth.3Q24 operating profit beat. Geely’s 3Q24 revenue was 2% lower than our prior forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Geely Automobile (175 HK) - 3Q24 NEV Sales and Profits Pave Way for FY25

<ul><li>We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.</li><li>We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.</li><li>As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Auto - 2025 Outlook: Likely a replica of 2024, but more

While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for...

CMB International

Geely Automobile (175 HK) - 3Q24 NEV Sales and Profits Pave Way for FY25

Maintain BUY. Despite an unexciting net profit, its SG&A cost control and NEV profitability were impressive in 3Q24. We expect the current strong...

CMB International

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat...

CMB International

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