Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.</p>

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This is a big topic that I find myself addressing to investors each quarter for the past 10 years as a steel analyst from where I live in Beijing, China. No steel production cuts have been made by the government and none are expected in the near term. </p><p>The evidence for this view is clear looking at crude steel production data, we see record high levels of production out of China in September.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/382/original/crude%20steel.png?1479190556" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16382"></figure><div class="content-caption">Figure 1: World Crude Steel Production - 139m tonnes in September up 2% YoY</div><div class="content-remarks"><p>Source: <a href="http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2016/September-2016-crude-steel-production.html" target="_blank">http://www.worldsteel.o</a>…</p></div>

This is a big topic that I find myself addressing to investors each quarter for the past 10 years as a steel analyst from where I live in Beijing, China. No steel production cuts have been made by the government and none are expected in the near term. The evidence for this view is clear looking at crude steel production data, we see record high levels of production out of China in September.Figure 1: World Crude Steel Production - 139m tonnes in September up 2% YoYSource: http://www.worldsteel.o…

Steel in China- No Government Capacity Shutdown

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.</p><p>This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…</p>

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.</li><li class="p1">Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.</li><li class="p1">We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.</li><li class="p1">Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.</li><li class="p1">Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).</li></ul><p><em>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane</em></p>

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.</li>
<li>The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.</li>
<li>Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.</li>
<li>Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…</li>
</ul></div>


Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.
The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.
Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.
Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…


China

GEM Co., Ltd. collects and recycles cobalt and nickel scraps into ultra-fine coba lt and nickel powder and other products.

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Gem Co Ltd A (002340 CH)

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight.

Vermilion Research

Steel in China- No Government Capacity Shutdown

This is a big topic that I find myself addressing to investors each quarter for the past 10 years as a steel analyst from where I live in Beijing,...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer...

Christopher Balding

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears. Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged...

Morningstar, Inc.

China - Late 2012-Early 2013 Repeat

Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle. 2015 is no...

Mark Artherton

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