Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing'</li><li>Policymaker actions may have exacerbated concerns, but a careful study of the data suggests all is not lost</li><li>Chinese manufacturing is facing a major downturn, but services are still strong; a twin-speed economy</li><li>Commodity exporters to China face a secular decline in demand, but service exporters should prosper</li><li>Our rebalancing, your problem - EM faces greater challenges from China's rebalancing than China itself</li><li>Short-term risks of a hard landing have been reduced, but medium-term risks continue to increase</li></ul>

Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing'Policymaker actions may have exacerbated concerns, but a careful study of the data suggests all is not lostChinese manufacturing is facing a major downturn, but services are still strong; a twin-speed economyCommodity exporters to China face a secular decline in demand, but service exporters should prosperOur rebalancing, your problem - EM faces greater challenges from China's rebalancing than China itselfShort-term risks of a hard landing have been reduced, but medium-term risks continue to increase

Asia Calling: China's Great Rebalancing - Why the Consensus Is Wrong

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on offshore bonds) and on Jan 12 got a waiver on a HK$400 million loan from HSBC.&nbsp; The notes dropped 40 percent last month as some of Kaisa’s Shenzhen projects were blocked and executives including founder Kwok Ying Shing quit. They continued to fall in January, reaching 29.9 cents on the dollar on Jan. 7. Its $800 million of 8.875 percent 2018 bonds also plunged.

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on offshore bonds) and on Jan 12 got a waiver on a HK$400 million loan from HSBC.&nbsp; The notes dropped 40 percent last month as some of Kaisa’s Shenzhen projects were blocked and executives including founder Kwok Ying Shing quit. They continued to fall in January, reaching 29.9 cents on the dollar on Jan. 7. Its $800 million of 8.875 percent 2018 bonds also plunged.

China Property / Debt - when Kaisa broke our Trust

China

Gemdale Corporation develops residential buildings and operates in property rental and management. The Company also invests in commercial trading businesses.

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Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH)

Asia Calling: China's Great Rebalancing - Why the Consensus Is Wrong

Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing' Policymaker actions may have exacerbated...

Callum Henderson

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example....

Daniel Tabbush

China Property / Debt - when Kaisa broke our Trust

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on...

David Millhouse

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)