Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024

<ul>
<li>The weekly data for new home sales for 18 cities with consistent data to the week ending September 10 does not show pickup signs, despite some media buzz after easing</li>
<li>But we expect the impact to start showing in the next weeks</li>
<li>In the meantime, using weekly metrics as predictors of the direction of the national monthly figures, suggests no real improvement YTD y/y so far for Sep</li>
</ul>


The weekly data for new home sales for 18 cities with consistent data to the week ending September 10 does not show pickup signs, despite some media buzz after easing
But we expect the impact to start showing in the next weeks
In the meantime, using weekly metrics as predictors of the direction of the national monthly figures, suggests no real improvement YTD y/y so far for Sep


China Housing - Weekly Data Does Not (Yet) Show Impact Of Policy Easing

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Q2 2020’s selection delivered an average return increase of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 37.4% over the same period. The GARP-based screen uses a combination of growth and value metrics to identify shares where brokers are forecasting high earnings growth, but which are currently valued at a price that is low relative to their forecast outlook. Whilst Central Banks are providing additional liquidity favouring growth names, our value-based screen is key to delivering positive gains as tapering begins. Q2 2021's screen provides 16 key suggestions.  What makes the current selection interesting is the bias towards Taiwan and India on a country basis and Industrials and Healthcare on a sector basis. Also of particular note, Singapore presents one name on this screen.

Q2 2020’s selection delivered an average return increase of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 37.4% over the same period. The GARP-based screen uses a combination of growth and value metrics to identify shares where brokers are forecasting high earnings growth, but which are currently valued at a price that is low relative to their forecast outlook. Whilst Central Banks are providing additional liquidity favouring growth names, our value-based screen is key to delivering positive gains as tapering begins. Q2 2021's screen provides 16 key suggestions.  What makes the current selection interesting is the bias towards Taiwan and India on a country basis and Industrials and Healthcare on a sector basis. Also of particular note, Singapore presents one name on this screen.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2021 All Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Growth as a style has been the “norm” for years, is the “norm” about to end? The continued strategies by Central Bank’s towards a “lower for longer stance around interest rates”, extended the underperformance of value for most of 2020. However, with the value/growth investment style ratio at 20-year lows, we present 27 names which hold characteristics worthy of further review.

Growth as a style has been the “norm” for years, is the “norm” about to end? The continued strategies by Central Bank’s towards a “lower for longer stance around interest rates”, extended the underperformance of value for most of 2020. However, with the value/growth investment style ratio at 20-year lows, we present 27 names which hold characteristics worthy of further review. 

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

Growth as an investment style has remained prominent over the COVID-19 period, reinforcing its decade long dominance over the value. The key question remains:  with earnings and value set to be a key theme over H2 2020 when exactly is the value style expected to reverse its underperformance trend? Our data suggest a greater than 66% chance of reversal shortly. As the value style reversal looks increasingly assured, exposure to GARP style investing and the underlying stocks are set to become even more important as we move into the second half of 2020. We highlight 17 stocks who fit the criteria in Q2 2020.

Growth as an investment style has remained prominent over the COVID-19 period, reinforcing its decade long dominance over the value. The key question remains:  with earnings and value set to be a key theme over H2 2020 when exactly is the value style expected to reverse its underperformance trend? Our data suggest a greater than 66% chance of reversal shortly. As the value style reversal looks increasingly assured, exposure to GARP style investing and the underlying stocks are set to become even more important as we move into the second half of 2020. We highlight 17 stocks who fit the criteria in Q2 2020.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Hong Kong

Gemdale Properties and Investment integrates real estate development and asset management platforms, focusing on the investment, development, and management of diversified properties such as industrial parks, shopping malls, commercial offices, rental apartments, and for-sale residentials. The company also provides financial services to property buyers and small businesses. It was established in 2013 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Gemdale Properties and Investment (535 HK)

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Gemdale Properties and Investment (535 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024

This note is a weekly (Jan 5-11, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Weekly Data Does Not (Yet) Show Impact Of Policy Easing

China Housing: The weekly new home sales data for 18 cities to the week ending Sep 10 does not show signs of improvement (yet) after the policy...

Robert Ciemniak

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2021 All Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

GARP selection, held for 12 mths for good reason. The list delivered an average return of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pac Index 37.4% over the same...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

With the value/growth investment style ratio at 20-year lows, we present 27 names which hold characteristics worthy of further review.

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Growth as an investment style has remained prominent over the COVID-19 period, reinforcing its decade long dominance over the value. The key...

David Lepper

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)