Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>With that said, QQQ violated $695 support, a concerning sign; $681-$686 support must hold on QQQ or we will downgrade it.</li>
<li>We continue to believe a consolidation or a continuation of short-term downtrends is likely through mid-to-late-August amid choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
With that said, QQQ violated $695 support, a concerning sign; $681-$686 support must hold on QQQ or we will downgrade it.
We continue to believe a consolidation or a continuation of short-term downtrends is likely through mid-to-late-August amid choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names.


Upgrading Health Care and Consumer Staples to Market Weight; Monitoring Tech for a Downgrade

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: China’s Housing Market Flashes Signs of Life in Core Cities On May 3, the banquet hall of a Hilton Garden Inn in Shenzhen was filled to capacity.</li><li>Within 40 minutes, buyers had snapped up all 92 apartments at Longhu Guancui, a newly launched residential project, making it the city’s first development in 2026 to sell out on its opening day.</li><li>Analysis: Why China Chip Stocks Are Sliding After Sharp Rally Chinese semiconductor stocks extended losses Monday, with the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index down more than 15% from late-May highs, as profit-taking, stake reductions and IPO expectations hit sentiment.</li></ul>

In Depth: China’s Housing Market Flashes Signs of Life in Core Cities On May 3, the banquet hall of a Hilton Garden Inn in Shenzhen was filled to capacity.Within 40 minutes, buyers had snapped up all 92 apartments at Longhu Guancui, a newly launched residential project, making it the city’s first development in 2026 to sell out on its opening day.Analysis: Why China Chip Stocks Are Sliding After Sharp Rally Chinese semiconductor stocks extended losses Monday, with the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index down more than 15% from late-May highs, as profit-taking, stake reductions and IPO expectations hit sentiment.

CX Daily: China’s Housing Market Flashes Signs of Life in Core Cities 

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

<ul>
<li>Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). </li>
<li>The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280</li>
<li>As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.</li>
</ul>


Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.


Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

United States

General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded and packaged consumer foods worldwide. The Company also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial baking industries.

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General Mills (GIS US)

Upgrading Health Care and Consumer Staples to Market Weight; Monitoring Tech for a Downgrade

Upgrading Health Care $XLV and Consumer Staples $XLP to Market Weight; Monitoring Tech $XLK for a Downgrade. $LLY $JNJ $ABBV $MRK $NVS $ABT $NVO...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: China’s Housing Market Flashes Signs of Life in Core Cities

In Depth: China’s Housing Market Flashes Signs of Life in Core Cities On May 3, the banquet hall of a Hilton Garden Inn in Shenzhen...

Caixin Global

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

$SPX unable to sustain a breakout above 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, $IWM remains below $190 resistance, $DJI could not sustain a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

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