New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a strong FY26 result, in line with revised expectations, albeit the 4Q26 performance was softer than originally anticipated.</li>
<li>GNE benefited from strong hydro inflow across the country, enabling it to switch off its thermal generation for long periods of time.</li>
<li>However, all was not roses, and opex was higher than expected, leading to moderate earnings downgrades, and it was the main reason FY27 guidance was below expectations.</li>
</ul>


Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a strong FY26 result, in line with revised expectations, albeit the 4Q26 performance was softer than originally anticipated.
GNE benefited from strong hydro inflow across the country, enabling it to switch off its thermal generation for long periods of time.
However, all was not roses, and opex was higher than expected, leading to moderate earnings downgrades, and it was the main reason FY27 guidance was below expectations.


Genesis Energy Hydro Powers Up, Opex Weighs Down—FY26

<ul>
<li>After three strong quarters, Genesis Energy’s (GNE) 4Q26 operating performance came in below expectations, and GNE has indicated its FY26 result will be towards the bottom end of its EBITDAF guidance range.</li>
<li>The softer-than-expected gross margin was a surprise given continued favourable operating conditions, with the 4Q26 gross margin of all three fuels less than in 4Q25.</li>
<li>We have lowered our FY26 EBITDAF forecast to reflect the soft operating performance and reduced medium-term earnings due to the reduction in electricity futures prices.</li>
</ul>


After three strong quarters, Genesis Energy’s (GNE) 4Q26 operating performance came in below expectations, and GNE has indicated its FY26 result will be towards the bottom end of its EBITDAF guidance range.
The softer-than-expected gross margin was a surprise given continued favourable operating conditions, with the 4Q26 gross margin of all three fuels less than in 4Q25.
We have lowered our FY26 EBITDAF forecast to reflect the soft operating performance and reduced medium-term earnings due to the reduction in electricity futures prices.


Genesis Energy Soft Finish Vs Expectations 4Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) lifted FY26 EBITDAF guidance for the third time this financial year, with operating conditions continuing to favour cheap hydro generation over expensive gas and coal generation.</li><li>GNE's 3Q26 operating performance was strong, with all fuels lifting retail margins, albeit at the cost of electricity and gas volumes.</li><li>While its materiality to GNE earnings is declining, the age of the Kupe field was highlighted by two unplanned outages, which negatively impacts our long-term outlook modestly.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) lifted FY26 EBITDAF guidance for the third time this financial year, with operating conditions continuing to favour cheap hydro generation over expensive gas and coal generation.GNE's 3Q26 operating performance was strong, with all fuels lifting retail margins, albeit at the cost of electricity and gas volumes.While its materiality to GNE earnings is declining, the age of the Kupe field was highlighted by two unplanned outages, which negatively impacts our long-term outlook modestly.

Genesis Energy Hydro Trumps Gas Every Time—3Q26 Op Stats

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Alongside its record 1H26 operating result, Genesis Energy (GNE) announced a NZ$400m equity raise to ease balance sheet constraints enabling the funding of its development pipeline.</li><li>GNE also announced a FY32 EBITDAF target implying growth broadly in line with peers, achievable only through on-balance sheet developments.</li><li>While this earnings growth is positive, it is capex-heavy and the associated equity dilution slightly offsets the value uplift.</li></ul>

Alongside its record 1H26 operating result, Genesis Energy (GNE) announced a NZ$400m equity raise to ease balance sheet constraints enabling the funding of its development pipeline.GNE also announced a FY32 EBITDAF target implying growth broadly in line with peers, achievable only through on-balance sheet developments.While this earnings growth is positive, it is capex-heavy and the associated equity dilution slightly offsets the value uplift.

Genesis Energy Development Battery Charged—1H26 Result

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 2Q26, benefiting from high rainfall that reduced the need to operate its expensive thermal generation.</li><li>The strong performance has led to GNE upgrading FY26 EBITDAF guidance, which we had anticipated.</li><li>If national rainfall volumes remain high, GNE is likely to be the main beneficiary.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 2Q26, benefiting from high rainfall that reduced the need to operate its expensive thermal generation.The strong performance has led to GNE upgrading FY26 EBITDAF guidance, which we had anticipated.If national rainfall volumes remain high, GNE is likely to be the main beneficiary.

Genesis Energy When It Rains, GNE Shines—2Q26 Op Stats

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy Hydro Powers Up, Opex Weighs Down—FY26

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a strong FY26 result, in line with revised expectations, albeit the 4Q26 performance was softer than originally...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Soft Finish Vs Expectations 4Q26 Op Stats

After three strong quarters, Genesis Energy’s (GNE) 4Q26 operating performance came in below expectations, and GNE has indicated its FY26 result...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Hydro Trumps Gas Every Time—3Q26 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) lifted FY26 EBITDAF guidance for the third time this financial year, with operating conditions continuing to favour cheap...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Development Battery Charged—1H26 Result

Alongside its record 1H26 operating result, Genesis Energy (GNE) announced a NZ$400m equity raise to ease balance sheet constraints enabling the...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy When It Rains, GNE Shines—2Q26 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 2Q26, benefiting from high rainfall that reduced the need to operate its expensive thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

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