New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>At the last investor meeting of Genesis Energy’s Tongariro hydro scheme tour, it revealed it has been successful in altering its Lake Takapō consents, such that it expects to generate an additional +60GWh (+6%) per annum.</li><li>The additional generation lifts our EBITDAF forecast by ~+NZ$8m per annum.</li><li>We lift our target price by +7cps (+2.7%) to NZ$2.62.</li></ul>

At the last investor meeting of Genesis Energy’s Tongariro hydro scheme tour, it revealed it has been successful in altering its Lake Takapō consents, such that it expects to generate an additional +60GWh (+6%) per annum.The additional generation lifts our EBITDAF forecast by ~+NZ$8m per annum.We lift our target price by +7cps (+2.7%) to NZ$2.62.

Genesis Energy Consented For Higher Hydro

<ul><li>Genesis Energy’s (GNE) investor day was long on options but short on targets, reflecting the current state of the fuel market.</li><li>While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged.</li><li>To achieve its goals, GNE needs capital.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy’s (GNE) investor day was long on options but short on targets, reflecting the current state of the fuel market.While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged.To achieve its goals, GNE needs capital.

Genesis Energy Long Options, Short Targets—2025 IR Day

<ul><li>October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.</li><li>The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.</li></ul>

October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 1Q26, boosted by favourable operating conditions, enabling it to replace thermal generation with hydro generation.</li><li>Conditions continue to be favourable, resulting in its FY26 EBITDAF guidance upgrade and a lift in our short-term forecasts.</li><li>However, with these upgrades primarily due to short-term operating conditions, the long-term outlook is little changed.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 1Q26, boosted by favourable operating conditions, enabling it to replace thermal generation with hydro generation.Conditions continue to be favourable, resulting in its FY26 EBITDAF guidance upgrade and a lift in our short-term forecasts.However, with these upgrades primarily due to short-term operating conditions, the long-term outlook is little changed.

Genesis Energy Hydro Swamps Coal—1Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a softer-than-expected FY25 EBITDAF result and an even softer FY26 outlook.</li><li>Short-term higher opex and capex, and long-term lower Kupe production (due to a reserves downgrade of -12%), have resulted in a modest target price cut.</li><li>High opex was also the reason for the FY26 EBITDAF guidance range of NZ$430m–NZ$460m coming in -NZ$70m below our expectation (at the midpoint).</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a softer-than-expected FY25 EBITDAF result and an even softer FY26 outlook.Short-term higher opex and capex, and long-term lower Kupe production (due to a reserves downgrade of -12%), have resulted in a modest target price cut.High opex was also the reason for the FY26 EBITDAF guidance range of NZ$430m–NZ$460m coming in -NZ$70m below our expectation (at the midpoint).

Genesis Energy  - Opex Smoke And Mirrors—FY25 Result

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy Consented For Higher Hydro

At the last investor meeting of Genesis Energy’s Tongariro hydro scheme tour, it revealed it has been successful in altering its Lake Takapō...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Long Options, Short Targets—2025 IR Day

While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged. To achieve its goals, GNE needs...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Hydro Swamps Coal—1Q26 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 1Q26, boosted by favourable operating conditions, enabling it to replace thermal generation with hydro...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Opex Smoke And Mirrors—FY25 Result

High opex was also the reason for the FY26 EBITDAF guidance range of NZ$430m–NZ$460m coming in -NZ$70m below our expectation (at the midpoint).

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)