New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>February 2026 was dominated by two equity raises and the government’s announcement that it is pursuing an LNG import facility.</li><li>The LNG facility announced by the government on 9 February appears to have been a key factor in 2028 and 2029 ASX futures prices declining ~-NZ$22/MWh (~-14%) in the following three weeks.</li><li>Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.</li></ul>

February 2026 was dominated by two equity raises and the government’s announcement that it is pursuing an LNG import facility.The LNG facility announced by the government on 9 February appears to have been a key factor in 2028 and 2029 ASX futures prices declining ~-NZ$22/MWh (~-14%) in the following three weeks.Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.

Power Points Not All Megawatts Are Equal—March 2026

<ul><li>January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).</li><li>January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.</li><li>For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.</li></ul>

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

<ul><li>The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost double EBITDAF.</li><li>All companies are expected to report healthy operating performance increases relative to 1H25, mainly because 1H25 included the effects of the dry 2024 winter.</li></ul>

The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us.Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost double EBITDAF.All companies are expected to report healthy operating performance increases relative to 1H25, mainly because 1H25 included the effects of the dry 2024 winter.

Electricity Sector Swimming With the Current—1H26 Preview

<ul><li>December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of new generation in recent years.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) broke hydro generation records, albeit, we do not expect that to translate into an earnings uplift as wholesale electricity prices were at near-record lows.</li><li>Heading into 2026 we are cautiously optimistic.</li></ul>

December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of new generation in recent years.Meridian Energy (MEL) broke hydro generation records, albeit, we do not expect that to translate into an earnings uplift as wholesale electricity prices were at near-record lows.Heading into 2026 we are cautiously optimistic.

Power Points Energised For 2026—January 2026

<ul><li>We head into GTK's FY25 result (24 November 2025) with a sense of déjà vu.</li><li>We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong execution from competitor Kraken.</li><li>Our proprietary data indicates ongoing staff growth, lending confidence that the Bulgarian scoping study remains on track for conversion into a contract.</li></ul>

We head into GTK's FY25 result (24 November 2025) with a sense of déjà vu.We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong execution from competitor Kraken.Our proprietary data indicates ongoing staff growth, lending confidence that the Bulgarian scoping study remains on track for conversion into a contract.

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Power Points Not All Megawatts Are Equal—March 2026

Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector Swimming With the Current—1H26 Preview

The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us. Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Energised For 2026—January 2026

December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of...

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack FY25 Preview—Dj Vu

We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong...

Forsyth Barr

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