New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) had a good finish to FY25, and we expect it comfortably exceeded its FY25 EBITDAF guidance, albeit missing out on the upside associated with a dry 4Q25.</li><li>The standout in the operating statistics was the substantial increase in electricity netback.</li><li>We retain our NEUTRAL rating, remaining mindful of gas recontracting risk and price sustainability.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) had a good finish to FY25, and we expect it comfortably exceeded its FY25 EBITDAF guidance, albeit missing out on the upside associated with a dry 4Q25.The standout in the operating statistics was the substantial increase in electricity netback.We retain our NEUTRAL rating, remaining mindful of gas recontracting risk and price sustainability.

Genesis Energy - Pulling The Price Lever—4Q25 Op Stats

<ul><li>Genesis Energy faced challenging wholesale market conditions in 3Q25, impacting its electricity gross margin due to high-cost thermal generation.</li><li>The company is well-positioned to provide back-up generation through winter 2025, with coal arriving before the end of August 2025, supporting a strong finish to FY25.</li><li>The target price for Genesis Energy has been reduced by 5cps to NZ$2.45, and longer-term forecasts are cautious due to higher fuel costs and lower Kupe volumes.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy faced challenging wholesale market conditions in 3Q25, impacting its electricity gross margin due to high-cost thermal generation.The company is well-positioned to provide back-up generation through winter 2025, with coal arriving before the end of August 2025, supporting a strong finish to FY25.The target price for Genesis Energy has been reduced by 5cps to NZ$2.45, and longer-term forecasts are cautious due to higher fuel costs and lower Kupe volumes.

Genesis Energy - Prepared for Winter — 3Q25 Op Stats

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a good 1H25 result, with a strong 2Q25 helping to offset the damage from the dry winter in 1Q25.</li><li>Looking ahead, there is no guidance change, unsurprising given the uncertain hydrology situation. </li><li>GNE's FY28 targets are maintained, implying strong EBITDAF growth. But biomass appears to be more expensive than previously envisaged. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a good 1H25 result, with a strong 2Q25 helping to offset the damage from the dry winter in 1Q25.Looking ahead, there is no guidance change, unsurprising given the uncertain hydrology situation. GNE's FY28 targets are maintained, implying strong EBITDAF growth. But biomass appears to be more expensive than previously envisaged. 

Genesis Energy - Amped Up Ambition—1H25 Result

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) had a strong 2Q25, taking advantage of low wholesale electricity prices to minimise generation operating costs and replenish its coal stockpile ahead of winter 2025.</li><li>We are expecting GNE to report its second-strongest-ever half-year result in February 2025 (albeit, it will be well behind the record set in 1H23).</li><li>With the near-term outlook more positive, we lift our target price +10cps (+4.2%) to NZ$2.50, although we still view GNE as trading at fair value relative to its peers. NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) had a strong 2Q25, taking advantage of low wholesale electricity prices to minimise generation operating costs and replenish its coal stockpile ahead of winter 2025.We are expecting GNE to report its second-strongest-ever half-year result in February 2025 (albeit, it will be well behind the record set in 1H23).With the near-term outlook more positive, we lift our target price +10cps (+4.2%) to NZ$2.50, although we still view GNE as trading at fair value relative to its peers. NEUTRAL.

Genesis Energy - Turning Down the Heat—2Q/1H25 Op Stats

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.</li><li>MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.</li><li>History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.</li></ul>

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy - Pulling The Price Lever—4Q25 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) had a good finish to FY25, and we expect it comfortably exceeded its FY25 EBITDAF guidance, albeit missing out on the upside...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Prepared for Winter — 3Q25 Op Stats

Genesis Energy faced challenging wholesale market conditions in 3Q25, impacting its electricity gross margin due to high-cost thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Amped Up Ambition—1H25 Result

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a good 1H25 result, with a strong 2Q25 helping to offset the damage from the dry winter in 1Q25.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Turning Down the Heat—2Q/1H25 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) had a strong 2Q25, taking advantage of low wholesale electricity prices to minimise generation operating costs and replenish...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days. MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce...

Forsyth Barr

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