Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 7 adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ora-banda-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2970:1" rel="noopener">Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU)</a> will be added to some of the S&amp;P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&amp;P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/ramelius-spartan-nut-out-4b-low-premium-merger-advisers-bunker-down-20250313-p5ljfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU)</a> are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. </li>
<li>A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. </li>
<li>My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. 
A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. 
My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.</li>
<li>The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.</li>
</ul>


The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> entered a binding scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable. </li>
<li>The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Gold (GOLD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agnico-eagle-mines-ltd-8b0f0329-d882-44b2-8bfc-7fe3a15f96b4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38576:1" rel="noopener">Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)</a> are potential suitors.</li>
</ul>



De Grey Mining (DEG AU) entered a binding scheme with Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable. 
The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. Barrick Gold (GOLD US) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) are potential suitors.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP, Fortescue, Flight Centre.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP, Fortescue, Flight Centre.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP, Fortescue

Australia

Genesis Minerals Limited is an Australian-based mineral exploration company. The Company acquires commercially significant mineral deposits that can be brought into production.

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Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

7 adds, float and capping changes lead to one-way turnover of 5.3% and a round-trip trade of US$610m. Spartan is also and ASX200 add while OBM is...

Brian Freitas

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the...

Arun George

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

Arun George

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer resource/reserve multiples. Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP, Fortescue

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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