Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.</li>
<li>While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.</li>
<li>Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.</li>
</ul>


Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.
While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.
Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>Having recently launched our Food &amp; Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to P$205 from P$210), KOF (P$197 PT), FEMSA (PT up to P$230 from P$222), and Becle (PT down to P$33 from P$36).</li>
<li>We see Coke bottlers as better positioned amid a competitive environment and a picky consumer, while we forecast improving trends in FEMSA and Becle.</li>
<li>We are more cautious on Bimbo (Market Perform) and Gruma (Market Perform), given harsh competition in their main markets and a more limited price/volume growth potential, in our view.</li>
</ul>


Having recently launched our Food &amp; Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to P$205 from P$210), KOF (P$197 PT), FEMSA (PT up to P$230 from P$222), and Becle (PT down to P$33 from P$36).
We see Coke bottlers as better positioned amid a competitive environment and a picky consumer, while we forecast improving trends in FEMSA and Becle.
We are more cautious on Bimbo (Market Perform) and Gruma (Market Perform), given harsh competition in their main markets and a more limited price/volume growth potential, in our view.


Actinver Research - Consumer post 3Q24: Sales deceleration while trying to protect margins

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>we believe global equities remain in a state of purgatory and consolidation is likely to continue as several major indexes approach logical resistance... <em>see charts below and page 2.</em> With global equity markets generally moving sideways, we want to stick with themes that are working -- we highlight actionable ideas in the following areas: Australian Banks, European/UK Banks and Autos &amp; Parts, Global Health Care stocks, and Japanese Manufacturing stocks.</p>

we believe global equities remain in a state of purgatory and consolidation is likely to continue as several major indexes approach logical resistance... see charts below and page 2. With global equity markets generally moving sideways, we want to stick with themes that are working -- we highlight actionable ideas in the following areas: Australian Banks, European/UK Banks and Autos &amp; Parts, Global Health Care stocks, and Japanese Manufacturing stocks.

Global Equities Nearing Potential Resistance

Equity Bottom-Up

Genomma Lab Internacional Sab / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We reiterate our Outperform rating, while slightly lowering our PT to P$29 (from P$30) post quiet period, as we continue to see meaningful upside.</li><li>We continue to expect margin stability —EBITDA margin close to 24%—, despite top-line softness.</li><li> Revenues of P$4.7bn grew 0.5% YoY, 2.6% below our estimates amid weaker-than-expected growth in Mexico and LatAm; the U.S. on the other hand surprised to the upside, partially supported by FX tailwinds.</li></ul>

We reiterate our Outperform rating, while slightly lowering our PT to P$29 (from P$30) post quiet period, as we continue to see meaningful upside.We continue to expect margin stability —EBITDA margin close to 24%—, despite top-line softness. Revenues of P$4.7bn grew 0.5% YoY, 2.6% below our estimates amid weaker-than-expected growth in Mexico and LatAm; the U.S. on the other hand surprised to the upside, partially supported by FX tailwinds.

Actinver Research - Genomma Lab 4Q24: Model Update Post 2Q25

Mexico

Genomma Lab Internacional SAB de CV develops, markets, sells and distributes over-the-counter drugs and personal care products.

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Genomma Lab Internacional Sab (LABB MM)

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer post 3Q24: Sales deceleration while trying to protect margins

Having recently launched our Food & Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to...

Actinver

Global Equities Nearing Potential Resistance

we believe global equities remain in a state of purgatory and consolidation is likely to continue as several major indexes approach logical...

Vermilion Research

Actinver Research - Genomma Lab 4Q24: Model Update Post 2Q25

We reiterate our Outperform rating, while slightly lowering our PT to P$29 (from P$30) post quiet period, as we continue to see meaningful...

Actinver

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