External broker reports(aggregated public sources), KGI Securities Singapore

KGI Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

KGI Securities Singapore

We are a pioneer Securities & Derivatives, Trading and Clearing Member of Singapore Exchange as well as a pioneer member of ICE Futures Singapore & ICE Clear Singapore. We offer our valued clients round the clock (24 hour) single-touch point for multi-asset clients and 24 hour high-touch desk for global products. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it owns 85% of TRA mine.</li><li>In December 2023 , after the acquisition, TRA had its first export shipment of coal valued at around USD3.2mn based on the ASP of approximately USD58.98 per tonne , which was sold at a premium to the Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) price of USD58.05 per tonne at that time, indicating the favourable demand for TRA coal.</li><li>TRA produces 3,800 kcal/kg gar coal and has 275Mt of 2P coal reserves , leading to a 262% increase in reserves after the acquisition.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it owns 85% of TRA mine.In December 2023 , after the acquisition, TRA had its first export shipment of coal valued at around USD3.2mn based on the ASP of approximately USD58.98 per tonne , which was sold at a premium to the Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) price of USD58.05 per tonne at that time, indicating the favourable demand for TRA coal.TRA produces 3,800 kcal/kg gar coal and has 275Mt of 2P coal reserves , leading to a 262% increase in reserves after the acquisition.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Company Update: Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI)

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

It has been almost two years since we last wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a>. Our last insight can be found here <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/geo-energy-gerl-sp-distressed-bonds-and-share-price-versus-optimistic-management-who-is-right" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34887" rel="noopener">Geo Energy (GERL SP): Distressed Bonds and Share Price Versus Optimistic Management; Who Is Right?</a> How things have changed!Back in late 2019, the coal price was hovering between 20-30 USD, Macquarie had bought 5% of the company for 0.29 SGD/share in November 2018 and Geo was generating losses as the coal price was below its cost of production. Entering 4Q21 the coal price is at stratospheric highs (117 USD for October 2021 delivery) and Geo is earning record profits.In a public disclosure, the company announced it made 26.5M USD in EBITDA in July 2021 alone. This was with coal prices around +/-50 USD/ton. Today coal prices are well over 100 USD. We estimate at current prices Geo is making at least 45M-50M USD in EBITDA every month! Compare this to the market cap of 320M USD currently. In 2H EBITDA at current market prices could total +/- 225M USD alone. 1H2021 EBITDA was 78M USD. Recall, Geo has no debt and 60M USD in cash.Mr. Market is slowly waking up to this reality pushing the stock up over 70% YTD (most of the gain came in the last few trading sessions). Many Indonesian-listed peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tambang-batubara-bukit-asam" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1189:1" rel="noopener">Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)</a>, and coal contractor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> have also underperformed vs the underlying commodity.  However, this is not true of US-listed peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consol-energy-inc-61c2f282-fc00-497d-9066-606d78f6fe82" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26245:1" rel="noopener">Consol Energy (CEIX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peabody-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6430:1" rel="noopener">Peabody Energy (BTU US)</a> which are up 345% and 606% respectively YTD.We expect a 4Q21 catch-up trade-in Indonesian-related coal names that could be violent. While prices will surely cool off in 2022 they might not drop all the way below the cost of production once again. Geo has a 30% dividend policy so investors are sure to see massive dividends (est. 18% div yield) come March 2022. Board member Jim Rogers should hopefully make sure the cash is not squandered on doing an expensive M&amp;A deal but is returned to shareholders.

It has been almost two years since we last wrote about Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP). Our last insight can be found here Geo Energy (GERL SP): Distressed Bonds and Share Price Versus Optimistic Management; Who Is Right? How things have changed!Back in late 2019, the coal price was hovering between 20-30 USD, Macquarie had bought 5% of the company for 0.29 SGD/share in November 2018 and Geo was generating losses as the coal price was below its cost of production. Entering 4Q21 the coal price is at stratospheric highs (117 USD for October 2021 delivery) and Geo is earning record profits.In a public disclosure, the company announced it made 26.5M USD in EBITDA in July 2021 alone. This was with coal prices around +/-50 USD/ton. Today coal prices are well over 100 USD. We estimate at current prices Geo is making at least 45M-50M USD in EBITDA every month! Compare this to the market cap of 320M USD currently. In 2H EBITDA at current market prices could total +/- 225M USD alone. 1H2021 EBITDA was 78M USD. Recall, Geo has no debt and 60M USD in cash.Mr. Market is slowly waking up to this reality pushing the stock up over 70% YTD (most of the gain came in the last few trading sessions). Many Indonesian-listed peers such as Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ), Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ), and coal contractor United Tractors (UNTR IJ) have also underperformed vs the underlying commodity.  However, this is not true of US-listed peers such as Consol Energy (CEIX US) and Peabody Energy (BTU US) which are up 345% and 606% respectively YTD.We expect a 4Q21 catch-up trade-in Indonesian-related coal names that could be violent. While prices will surely cool off in 2022 they might not drop all the way below the cost of production once again. Geo has a 30% dividend policy so investors are sure to see massive dividends (est. 18% div yield) come March 2022. Board member Jim Rogers should hopefully make sure the cash is not squandered on doing an expensive M&amp;A deal but is returned to shareholders.

Geo Energy: Indonesian Coal Market Beneficiary Trading at Distressed Multiple

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Share buybacks by primary listed companies 21 Apr - 27 Apr 2023 DBS, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Investment, Singtel and Singapore Airlines led the net institutional inflow for the five sessions.</li><li>The current share buyback mandate of Nanofilm has seen Asia’s nanotechnology solutions leader buy back 1.78 per cent of its issued shares (excluding treasury shares).</li></ul>

Share buybacks by primary listed companies 21 Apr - 27 Apr 2023 DBS, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Investment, Singtel and Singapore Airlines led the net institutional inflow for the five sessions.The current share buyback mandate of Nanofilm has seen Asia’s nanotechnology solutions leader buy back 1.78 per cent of its issued shares (excluding treasury shares).

Institutions net buy S$219 million in Singapore stocks over 10 sessions

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In our October 2021 insight, we correctly anticipated a catch-up trade in Indonesian coal names: GEO is up 66.45%, Adaro is up 102% and ITMG is up 37.4%.</li>
<li>Coal is the new tobacco as coal stays stronger for longer due to limited capacity expansion. At spot prices, FY22 div yield is 48% for Adaro and 65% for ITMG.</li>
<li>Shares have re-rated but not as fast as improvement in profits, given historical payout ratios dividend yields in 2022 could be astronomically high capping downside risks.</li>
</ul>


In our October 2021 insight, we correctly anticipated a catch-up trade in Indonesian coal names: GEO is up 66.45%, Adaro is up 102% and ITMG is up 37.4%.
Coal is the new tobacco as coal stays stronger for longer due to limited capacity expansion. At spot prices, FY22 div yield is 48% for Adaro and 65% for ITMG.
Shares have re-rated but not as fast as improvement in profits, given historical payout ratios dividend yields in 2022 could be astronomically high capping downside risks.


Indonesian Coal = the New Tobacco? Dividend Bonanza Coming: 48-65% Dividend Yields Possible

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumitama-agri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7757:1" rel="noopener">Bumitama Agri (BAL SP)</a> is a pure-play CPO play on SGX which like the rest of its peers has lagged the price of CPO by a mile.</li>
<li>What could be the catalyst to change this? We preview FY21 results which will be announced on 28th February and its dividend outlook going into FY22.</li>
<li>BAL should take a page from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a> playbook and start to pay out aggressive bi-annual dividends to get Mr. Market's attention.</li>
</ul>



Bumitama Agri (BAL SP) is a pure-play CPO play on SGX which like the rest of its peers has lagged the price of CPO by a mile.
What could be the catalyst to change this? We preview FY21 results which will be announced on 28th February and its dividend outlook going into FY22.
BAL should take a page from the Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) playbook and start to pay out aggressive bi-annual dividends to get Mr. Market's attention.


Bumitama Agri: Lagging CPO Price Action; Large Special Dividend Possible at FY21 Results Briefing

Singapore

Geo Energy Resources Limited is a coal mining specialist based in Indonesia. The Company owns and operates coal mines.

Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)

Company Update: Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI)

Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it...

KGI Securities

Geo Energy: Indonesian Coal Market Beneficiary Trading at Distressed Multiple

GEO has run 70% YTD but has lagged US-listed coal peers such as Consol and Peabody which are up respectively 345% and 606% YTD. We expect a violent...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Institutions net buy S$219 million in Singapore stocks over 10 sessions

Share buybacks by primary listed companies 21 Apr - 27 Apr 2023 DBS, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Investment, Singtel and...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Indonesian Coal = the New Tobacco? Dividend Bonanza Coming: 48-65% Dividend Yields Possible

Coal is the new tobacco and could remain stronger for longer with Russian coal out of the market. Shares have re-rated but dividend yields in FY22...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Bumitama Agri: Lagging CPO Price Action; Large Special Dividend Possible at FY21 Results Briefing

Bumitama Agri will celebrate its 10 year listing anniversary in 2022. This opens the door for special dividends as high CPO prices and unhedged...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven