Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.</li>
<li>We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.
We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)


Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

Leading Air Cargo Price Platform, TAC Index

TAC Index

Leading Air Cargo Price Platform

TAC Index Is the Leading Provider of Risk Management Information Services for the Air Cargo Industry, Delivering Market-Neutral, Innovative Products That Empower Economists, Financial Institutions, and Governments to Make Smarter, Data-Driven Decisions and Reduce Their Exposure to Air Cargo Trade Risk.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>2025 was certainly an unpredictable, volatile and at times chaotic year for global trade.</li><li>Nevertheless, global air freight rates largely followed the traditional pattern – rising to a seasonal peak in the runup to Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas in Europe, then falling sharply as volumes dropped over New Year.</li><li>The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) calculated by TAC Data continued rising steadily through the first half of December before falling steeply in the final week after Christmas – ending the four weeks to January 5 lower by -15.0%.</li></ul>

2025 was certainly an unpredictable, volatile and at times chaotic year for global trade.Nevertheless, global air freight rates largely followed the traditional pattern – rising to a seasonal peak in the runup to Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas in Europe, then falling sharply as volumes dropped over New Year.The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) calculated by TAC Data continued rising steadily through the first half of December before falling steeply in the final week after Christmas – ending the four weeks to January 5 lower by -15.0%.

Air Freight Rates Reach December Peak Then Fall Sharply to End a Tumultuous Year

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow</li>
<li>An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes</li>
<li>We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors</li>
</ul>


A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow
An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes
We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors


Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Central banks add fuel to the ongoing commodity bull market</li>
<li>Could we see a meaningful de-escalation in US and China tensions</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Central banks add fuel to the ongoing commodity bull market
Could we see a meaningful de-escalation in US and China tensions


Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving

<ul>
<li>How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25</li>
</ul>


How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25


Germany

The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The equities use free float shares in the index calculation. The DAX has a base value of 1,000 as of December 31, 1987. As of June 18, 1999 only XETRA equity prices are used to calculate all DAX indices.

German Stock Index (DAX INDEX)

Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

Thursday pre-market International Compass report: Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, and...

Vermilion Research

Air Freight Rates Reach December Peak Then Fall Sharply to End a Tumultuous Year

2025 was certainly an unpredictable, volatile and at times chaotic year for global trade. Nevertheless, global air freight rates largely followed...

TAC Index

Major 2026 Investment Themes

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank Pronouncements and the potential for US-China tension de...

Rikki Malik

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

Thursday pre-market International Compass report: Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, and...

Vermilion Research

Air Freight Rates Reach December Peak Then Fall Sharply to End a Tumultuous Year

2025 was certainly an unpredictable, volatile and at times chaotic year for global trade. Nevertheless, global air freight rates largely followed...

TAC Index

Major 2026 Investment Themes

​A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank Pronouncements and the potential for US-China tension de...

Rikki Malik

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

​A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...