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Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and valuable co-products. </li><li>In North Dakota, Gevo has an integrated low-carbon ethanol plant with large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and is planning a 30-million-gallon alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-30) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. </li><li>Gevo recently reported 1Q26 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 million (see 1Q26 results recap). </li></ul>

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and valuable co-products. In North Dakota, Gevo has an integrated low-carbon ethanol plant with large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and is planning a 30-million-gallon alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-30) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. Gevo recently reported 1Q26 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 million (see 1Q26 results recap). 

GEVO: Raising Our Forecasts; Debottlenecking and CDRs Support 48% EBITDA Growth in 2027E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>The liquid renewable fuels sector has entered 2H26 in the strongest position it has occupied in years. </li><li>Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance sheets are healthier, and carbon credit revenue is maturing into a durable earnings stream that stands apart from physical fuel.</li><li>In this report, we walk through the five most resounding themes from companies’ interim results and recent WTR events, illustrated with company-level evidence and near-term catalysts with our thoughts on what we’re watching in the coming weeks for investors to follow.</li></ul></div>

The liquid renewable fuels sector has entered 2H26 in the strongest position it has occupied in years. Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance sheets are healthier, and carbon credit revenue is maturing into a durable earnings stream that stands apart from physical fuel.In this report, we walk through the five most resounding themes from companies’ interim results and recent WTR events, illustrated with company-level evidence and near-term catalysts with our thoughts on what we’re watching in the coming weeks for investors to follow.

WTR Circular Carbon Focus Report : Five Key Themes Driving Liquid Renewable Fuels

<ul><li>Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and valuable co-products. </li><li>In North Dakota, Gevo has an integrated low-carbon ethanol plant with large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and is planning a 30-million-gallon alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-30) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant.</li><li>We forecast a nearly 60% EBITDA CAGR through 2030 driven by plant optimization, carbon monetization, and SAF deployment. </li></ul>

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and valuable co-products. In North Dakota, Gevo has an integrated low-carbon ethanol plant with large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and is planning a 30-million-gallon alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-30) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant.We forecast a nearly 60% EBITDA CAGR through 2030 driven by plant optimization, carbon monetization, and SAF deployment. 

GEVO: Delivers 20% EBITDA Beat in 4Q25; Strong Growth Outlook Intact

<ul><li>Major US battery developers secured more than $2 billion in financing, fueled by 31% cost drops to $117/kWh and the EIA’s 65-GW forecast by 2026, signaling lender confidence despite federal shifts. </li><li>States push solar bills to beat ITC deadlines, curbing local bans (Virginia, Midwest) and streamlining permits (Oregon, Washington). </li><li>The Trump administration cut $943 million EV charger funds from blue states, risking range anxiety. </li></ul>

Major US battery developers secured more than $2 billion in financing, fueled by 31% cost drops to $117/kWh and the EIA’s 65-GW forecast by 2026, signaling lender confidence despite federal shifts. States push solar bills to beat ITC deadlines, curbing local bans (Virginia, Midwest) and streamlining permits (Oregon, Washington). The Trump administration cut $943 million EV charger funds from blue states, risking range anxiety. 

Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on Gevo: Financial Outlook

<ul><li>Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a technology-driven company that produces renewable fuels and chemicals that offer cost-effective, sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels. </li><li>Utilizing bio-based resources and advanced fermentation, Gevo creates high-value “drop-in” fuels and chemicals.</li><li>Its portfolio includes low-carbon ethanol, synthetic aviation fuel (SAF), renewable natural gas (RNG), and co-products such as protein feed, corn oil, and biogenic industrial CO2. </li></ul>

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a technology-driven company that produces renewable fuels and chemicals that offer cost-effective, sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels. Utilizing bio-based resources and advanced fermentation, Gevo creates high-value “drop-in” fuels and chemicals.Its portfolio includes low-carbon ethanol, synthetic aviation fuel (SAF), renewable natural gas (RNG), and co-products such as protein feed, corn oil, and biogenic industrial CO2. 

GEVO: Financial Outlook; SAF and Carbon Strategy Drive 62% EBITDA CAGR (2025-30E)

United States

Gevo Inc. operates as a technology development company for biobutanol. The Company offers products that enable the production of fuels for the diesel and jet markets, and the production of green chemicals derived from renewable resources.

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Gevo (GEVO US)

GEVO: Raising Our Forecasts; Debottlenecking and CDRs Support 48% EBITDA Growth in 2027E

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and...

Water Tower Research

WTR Circular Carbon Focus Report : Five Key Themes Driving Liquid Renewable Fuels

Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance...

Water Tower Research

GEVO: Delivers 20% EBITDA Beat in 4Q25; Strong Growth Outlook Intact

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and...

Water Tower Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on Gevo: Financial Outlook

Major US battery developers secured more than $2 billion in financing, fueled by 31% cost drops to $117/kWh and the EIA’s 65-GW forecast by 2026...

Water Tower Research

GEVO: Financial Outlook; SAF and Carbon Strategy Drive 62% EBITDA CAGR (2025-30E)

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a technology-driven company that produces renewable fuels and chemicals that offer cost-effective, sustainable...

Water Tower Research

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