HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corp-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a> has received CSRC approval for its merger with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a>, but its share price has fallen. </li>
<li>Concerns about EPS dilution are valid, as CDS' and DXS' 1H26 earnings are weaker than CICC's. However, amid increased industry consolidation, the merger is strategically important.</li>
<li>CICC now sits at 0.57x 12-month forward P/B, just the average since 2021. We expect the merger to enhance book value, and H-shareholders will benefit more. </li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK) has received CSRC approval for its merger with Cinda Securities (601059 CH) and Dongxing Securities (601198 CH), but its share price has fallen. 
Concerns about EPS dilution are valid, as CDS' and DXS' 1H26 earnings are weaker than CICC's. However, amid increased industry consolidation, the merger is strategically important.
CICC now sits at 0.57x 12-month forward P/B, just the average since 2021. We expect the merger to enhance book value, and H-shareholders will benefit more. 


CICC (3908 HK): CSRC's Approval of the Merger

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.</li>
<li>The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.</li>
<li>It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.
The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.
It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.


China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

China

GF Securities Co., Ltd. provides comprehensive capital market services to corporations, individuals, institutional investors, financial institutions, and government clients in China. Its core business segments include investment banking, wealth management, trading and institution, and investment management, offering services such as equity and debt financing, brokerage, asset management, and investment advisory. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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GF Securities (1776 HK)

CICC (3908 HK): CSRC's Approval of the Merger

The market has concerns about the merger's EPS dilution for CICC. However, it is strategically important. Also, CICC's 0.57x 12-month forward P/B...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

China's aging population has captured investors' attention of late. What opportunities will shifting demographics bring to the fledgling private...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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