Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.</li>
<li>That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.</li>
<li>The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.</li>
<li>Alibaba is…</li>
</ul>


The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.
That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.
The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.
Alibaba is…


Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…</p>

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

Founder, Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

Susan Finder

Founder

Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

<p>A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjA3NDc5MA==&amp;mid=2654696679&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=de31519c793d3104b951aff8f5533d8a&amp;chksm=bd2110ae8a5699b82257b31d4423e80eb779f5de31303016012381e999a9c774bac4eaa2d167&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=5&amp;srcid=0123rxQfyxxt74qmE8hHGXcm#rd" target="_blank">status report</a> on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.</p><h2>What is special about Zhejiang?</h2><p>Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in <a href="http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/Facts-and-Figures/Zhejiang-Market-Profile/ff/en/1/1X000000/1X06BVYH.htm" target="_blank">2015</a>.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…</p>

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.What is special about Zhejiang?Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in 2015.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul><li>With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center shortly.</li><li>Our base case scenario is the middle ground between full-blown trade war and friendly trade negotiation scenarios. </li><li>We recommend shorting Renminbi (Rmb) currency to play US protectionism theme.</li><li>In the full-blown trade war scenario, there is no hiding place for equity investors, in our opinion.</li></ul>

With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center shortly.Our base case scenario is the middle ground between full-blown trade war and friendly trade negotiation scenarios. We recommend shorting Renminbi (Rmb) currency to play US protectionism theme.In the full-blown trade war scenario, there is no hiding place for equity investors, in our opinion.

Asia Market Strategy: What Does US Protectionism Mean to China and ASEAN?

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<p>Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model forecast the growth of these factors to 2030 and has valuable insight as to where consumers will exit poverty and enter the middle class over the forecast period. For consumer finance, these consumers that are recent additions to the middle class will represent a sizeable and bankable population. Companies that invest early and establish brand loyalty with these consumers will very likely benefit over the forecast period</p>

Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model forecast the growth of these factors to 2030 and has valuable insight as to where consumers will exit poverty and enter the middle class over the forecast period. For consumer finance, these consumers that are recent additions to the middle class will represent a sizeable and bankable population. Companies that invest early and establish brand loyalty with these consumers will very likely benefit over the forecast period

Markets Expected to Lower Poverty Rate the Most by 2030

China

GF Securities Co., Ltd. provides comprehensive capital market services to corporations, individuals, institutional investors, financial institutions, and government clients in China. Its core business segments include investment banking, wealth management, trading and institution, and investment management, offering services such as equity and debt financing, brokerage, asset management, and investment advisory. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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GF Securities (1776 HK)

Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in...

Sean Maher

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in...

John-Paul Smith

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province,...

Susan Finder

Asia Market Strategy: What Does US Protectionism Mean to China and ASEAN?

With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Markets Expected to Lower Poverty Rate the Most by 2030

Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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