HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>With policy optimization and market adjustment, the VBP will pay more attention to the balance between quality, supply, and price. So, we think malignant price competition would be avoided.</li>
<li>By 2025, the VBP of biosimilar drugs will gradually cover the major categories such as monoclonal antibody, growth hormone and blood products, with an average price reduction of 30%-50%</li>
<li>Giant Biogene announced a HK$2.294 billion placement with Placing Price of HK$66.65/Share. Investment logic/fundamentals will change after Class III medical device is approved.Based on 2025-2027 forecast, growth will remain strong.</li>
</ul>


With policy optimization and market adjustment, the VBP will pay more attention to the balance between quality, supply, and price. So, we think malignant price competition would be avoided.
By 2025, the VBP of biosimilar drugs will gradually cover the major categories such as monoclonal antibody, growth hormone and blood products, with an average price reduction of 30%-50%
Giant Biogene announced a HK$2.294 billion placement with Placing Price of HK$66.65/Share. Investment logic/fundamentals will change after Class III medical device is approved.Based on 2025-2027 forecast, growth will remain strong.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.20)- Giant Biogene Announced a HK$2.3bn Placement, China's VBP Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to higher technological barriers and stricter review/approval processes, Class III medical device registration certificates in China are scarce.This is the key to addressing the decline in Giant Biogene’s performance/profitability.</li>
<li>The approval for Giant Biogene’s Class III medical device has been delayed. If Trautec and Jinbo take the lead, it will affect the market expectations of Giant Biogene's new products.</li>
<li>Without successful approval of Class III medical devices, reasonable valuation for Giant Biogene is P/E of 20-30x at most. The short-term catalyst is the upcoming online Double Eleven Shopping Festival.</li>
</ul>


Due to higher technological barriers and stricter review/approval processes, Class III medical device registration certificates in China are scarce.This is the key to addressing the decline in Giant Biogene’s performance/profitability.
The approval for Giant Biogene’s Class III medical device has been delayed. If Trautec and Jinbo take the lead, it will affect the market expectations of Giant Biogene's new products.
Without successful approval of Class III medical devices, reasonable valuation for Giant Biogene is P/E of 20-30x at most. The short-term catalyst is the upcoming online Double Eleven Shopping Festival.


Giant Biogene (2367.HK) - The Key to Valuation Expansion and Short-Term Catalyst

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Giant Biogene Placement - Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.</li>
<li>The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

China

Giant Biogene designs, develops, manufactures, and sells beauty and health products, primarily functional skincare products and medical dressings, utilizing recombinant collagen as a key bioactive ingredient. The company also develops and manufactures functional foods based on rare ginsenosides technology. It was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Xi'an, People's Republic of China.

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Giant Biogene (2367 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.20)- Giant Biogene Announced a HK$2.3bn Placement, China's VBP Outlook

VBP policy changes will avoid malignant price competition.Giant Biogene announced HK$2.3bn placement with Placing Price of HK$66.65.Growth will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang