Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The desire for home improvement was already building well before the pandemic but Japanese have turned to home decoration like never before since March 2020 as long days at home led to demand for more comfort and better aesthetics. With visits to physical stores currently something of a challenge, online sources have boomed, including new subscription rental services. While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> is a beneficiary of this trend, competitors have also seen sharp gains in volume, suggesting further new competition for the dominant player. Lowya for example is now expecting compound annual growth (CAGR) of between 21-26% over the next five years, with a forecast ¥60 billion in GTVs in 2026.

The desire for home improvement was already building well before the pandemic but Japanese have turned to home decoration like never before since March 2020 as long days at home led to demand for more comfort and better aesthetics. With visits to physical stores currently something of a challenge, online sources have boomed, including new subscription rental services. While Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) is a beneficiary of this trend, competitors have also seen sharp gains in volume, suggesting further new competition for the dominant player. Lowya for example is now expecting compound annual growth (CAGR) of between 21-26% over the next five years, with a forecast ¥60 billion in GTVs in 2026.

Competition for Nitori: Online Furniture Sales Surge

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quantitative Analysis

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When Japanese small-cap stocks listed on JASDAQ, MOTHERS, and the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange aim at the big leagues and apply for reassignment to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and are accepted, it causes significant events to occur. This triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index which means passive funds tracking TOPIX need to buy on an inclusion event. This opens up several interesting trading opportunities for investors. 
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In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 7 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 or January 2021 and 8 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of October 2020 and November 2020. Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 
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When Japanese small-cap stocks listed on JASDAQ, MOTHERS, and the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange aim at the big leagues and apply for reassignment to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and are accepted, it causes significant events to occur. This triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index which means passive funds tracking TOPIX need to buy on an inclusion event. This opens up several interesting trading opportunities for investors. 


In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 7 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 or January 2021 and 8 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of October 2020 and November 2020. Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 


<div>
When Japanese small-cap stocks listed on JASDAQ, MOTHERS, and the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange aim at the big leagues and apply for reassignment to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and are accepted, it causes significant events to occur.
This triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index which means passive funds tracking TOPIX need to buy on an inclusion event. This opens up several interesting trading opportunities for investors. 
In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 3 "Live" event stocks which have announced their TSE1 move in  October 2020 and 5 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events today and some Pre-event trades involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 
</div>


When Japanese small-cap stocks listed on JASDAQ, MOTHERS, and the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange aim at the big leagues and apply for reassignment to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and are accepted, it causes significant events to occur.
This triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index which means passive funds tracking TOPIX need to buy on an inclusion event. This opens up several interesting trading opportunities for investors. 
In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 3 "Live" event stocks which have announced their TSE1 move in  October 2020 and 5 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events today and some Pre-event trades involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 


In late July 2020, the Tokyo Stock Exchange issued Revisions to Listing Rules to Enhance Functions for Raising Funds through the Capital Market. These were discussed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-tse-s-listing-criteria-revisions-part-i" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43150" rel="noopener">The TSE's Listing Criteria Revisions - Part I</a>.These revisions have very important implications to Pre-event trades in the TOPIX Inclusions Universe as fewer candidates will be able to meet these more-stringent new requirements. In this insight, we take a look at how these new requirements will influence our Pre-event trades. In addition, I have also provided performance updates for 5 "Live" events which have announced their TSE1 move in September 2020 and 6 "Post" events that involves stocks which have already had their Inclusion events in August 2020. As noted last month, unusually there were no inclusions for September due to section/segment reassignment.As always, there is more below the fold.

In late July 2020, the Tokyo Stock Exchange issued Revisions to Listing Rules to Enhance Functions for Raising Funds through the Capital Market. These were discussed by Travis Lundy in The TSE's Listing Criteria Revisions - Part I.These revisions have very important implications to Pre-event trades in the TOPIX Inclusions Universe as fewer candidates will be able to meet these more-stringent new requirements. In this insight, we take a look at how these new requirements will influence our Pre-event trades. In addition, I have also provided performance updates for 5 "Live" events which have announced their TSE1 move in September 2020 and 6 "Post" events that involves stocks which have already had their Inclusion events in August 2020. As noted last month, unusually there were no inclusions for September due to section/segment reassignment.As always, there is more below the fold. 

Event-Driven

TSE Mothers-listed noodle restaurant chain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29276:1" rel="noopener">Gift Inc (9279 JP)</a> announced (<a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C9279/wVz1/t8i0/oNu8.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) on Friday after market close it had received approval to move to TSE1 as of 18th September 2020. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 29th October 2020. In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event.

TSE Mothers-listed noodle restaurant chain Gift Inc (9279 JP) announced (J-only) on Friday after market close it had received approval to move to TSE1 as of 18th September 2020. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 29th October 2020. In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event. 

Japan

Gift Inc. operates noodles restaurants. The Company offers noodles materials, noodles shop design, employee training, customer service consulting, and other related services. Gift also opens noodles restaurants overseas.

Gift Inc (9279 JP)

Competition for Nitori: Online Furniture Sales Surge

Nitori remains number one by far and its own e-commerce site is doing well but other online-only stores have seen fast growth, creating new forms...

Michael Causton

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Nov 2020

November review of pre-events, live events, and post-events in the TOPIX Inclusion trade universe. There are a dozen pre-event recommendations...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Oct 2020

TOPIX Inclusion Trade summary for October 2020. "Live" events, "Completed" events, and the unwind of the Post-IPO Basket Trade Strategy due to TSE...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020

The Tokyo Stock Exchange will be introducing new requirement

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusion (9279 JP): Gift Inc

TSE Mothers-listed Gift Inc (9279 JP) announced (J-only) after market close today it had received approval to move to TSE1 as of 15th September 2020.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA