Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX new 52W highs on Bank earnings, AI (thx to MSFT), and Resilient Retail print; MSFT prices Copilot at high end; US bank CEOs showing optimism. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Look for continued follow through in Japan equity bid; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak view;   Kishida cabinet reshuffle?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Isuzu(7202) - Big EV Spending but Still looks Cheap at 1x PBR. A 15% FY3/26 ROE as per mid term plan makes this look interesting for LT investors here.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX new 52W highs on Bank earnings, AI (thx to MSFT), and Resilient Retail print; MSFT prices Copilot at high end; US bank CEOs showing optimism. 
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Look for continued follow through in Japan equity bid; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak view;   Kishida cabinet reshuffle?
NUGGET. Isuzu(7202) - Big EV Spending but Still looks Cheap at 1x PBR. A 15% FY3/26 ROE as per mid term plan makes this look interesting for LT investors here.


Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) - EV Outlook Better for Trucks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MY.Alpha <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XI18.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-01-29T07%3A43%3A42Z&amp;se=2031-01-29T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=kPsjKq9fK8jE14Jf9h8xjamls%2B24%2FOOVcFr9lijd1ig%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.06% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>. The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.</li>
<li>The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.</li>
<li>The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. </li>
</ul>


MY.Alpha reported a 5.06% ownership ratio in Raksul Inc (4384 JP). The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.
The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.
The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) has recommended a Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.
While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. 
The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. 


Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The gift market has contracted in recent years as corporate and formal gift giving has declined, but companies and individuals are enthusiastic adopters of digital gifting thanks to the convenience. </li>
<li>Businesses, in particular, are using eGifts as marketing and promotion tools and Giftee is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend. </li>
<li>The convenience and low cost of these services suggests considerable potential for expansion going forward, even if the consumer online gift market will increasingly be owned by LINE.</li>
</ul>


The gift market has contracted in recent years as corporate and formal gift giving has declined, but companies and individuals are enthusiastic adopters of digital gifting thanks to the convenience. 
Businesses, in particular, are using eGifts as marketing and promotion tools and Giftee is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend. 
The convenience and low cost of these services suggests considerable potential for expansion going forward, even if the consumer online gift market will increasingly be owned by LINE.


Giftee: Digital Gifting Surges for Consumer Businesses

<div><ul>
<li>
Giftee's stock price rose 20 percent after strong 1Q results were announced in mid-May. Since then, the stock has fallen back to its 200-day moving average. Now is a good time to revisit the name. 
</li>
<li>Giftee for Business remains the primary revenue generator as record numbers of companies join the platform, resulting in a 50% growth in the number of marketing campaigns. </li>
<li>
Giftee is a leading distributor of e-gifts for individuals, corporations, and local governments in Japan. As offline activities move online, e-gifts are likely to see continued growth.  
</li>
</ul></div>



Giftee's stock price rose 20 percent after strong 1Q results were announced in mid-May. Since then, the stock has fallen back to its 200-day moving average. Now is a good time to revisit the name. 

Giftee for Business remains the primary revenue generator as record numbers of companies join the platform, resulting in a 50% growth in the number of marketing campaigns. 

Giftee is a leading distributor of e-gifts for individuals, corporations, and local governments in Japan. As offline activities move online, e-gifts are likely to see continued growth.  



Japan Small Cap Growth: Giftee (4449) - Q1 Wrap

Japan

giftee, Inc. provides electronic gift services. The Company gives electronic gifts for free from online with small thanks. giftee also provides gift tickets from shops to customers.

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giftee Inc (4449 JP)

Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) - EV Outlook Better for Trucks

US equities hit new highs on bank and AI optimism; NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak...

Mark Chadwick

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George

Giftee: Digital Gifting Surges for Consumer Businesses

Online gift giving by businesses and consumers has increased rapidly in recent years and should expand further with Giftee one of the main...

Michael Causton

Japan Small Cap Growth: Giftee (4449) - Q1 Wrap

Giftee is a leading distributor of e-gifts for individuals, corporations, and local governments in Japan. As offline activities move online, e...

Mark Chadwick

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