Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dominant Philippine gin franchise with intact pricing power: ASP per case rose 5.0% YoY in Q2 FY26, holding half-year revenue flat against a 5% volume decline.</li>
<li>Gross margin of 28.3% is a series high, and EBITDA margin 17.5%; debt-free balance sheet holds PHP 18.6bn net cash and investments, funding a 6% higher H1 dividend.</li>
<li>Trades at 7.5x FY26E earnings, 4.8x EV/EBITDA and a 7.4% yield on estimates; FY26E EPS PHP 32.80, DPS PHP 18, ROCE 35%.</li>
</ul>


Dominant Philippine gin franchise with intact pricing power: ASP per case rose 5.0% YoY in Q2 FY26, holding half-year revenue flat against a 5% volume decline.
Gross margin of 28.3% is a series high, and EBITDA margin 17.5%; debt-free balance sheet holds PHP 18.6bn net cash and investments, funding a 6% higher H1 dividend.
Trades at 7.5x FY26E earnings, 4.8x EV/EBITDA and a 7.4% yield on estimates; FY26E EPS PHP 32.80, DPS PHP 18, ROCE 35%.


GINEBRA SAN MIGUEL INC. (GSMI PM): Slight Stalling of Growth >35% ROCE and 7.4% Yield Intact

<ul>
<li>We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multibagger opportunities in the Philippines.</li>
<li>Our top picks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">Keepers (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-container-terminal-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
<li>Q2FY26 earnings are out of the way, and we summarize the issues currently facing consumers in the Philippines as the country continues to grapple with inflationary pressures. </li>
</ul>


We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multibagger opportunities in the Philippines.
Our top picks are: Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), Keepers (KEEPR PM), International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM), and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 
Q2FY26 earnings are out of the way, and we summarize the issues currently facing consumers in the Philippines as the country continues to grapple with inflationary pressures. 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - September 2026

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>  reported steady growth in Q2 2025, with revenues and profits increasing by 7.3% and 20.7% YoY. Volume/Pricing grew 1%/6.3% YoY as company offset excise-duty increases.</li>
<li>EBITDA margins were maintained at 16.8%, while the company saw its net cash and investments stable at 16.1 billion pesos (56 pesos/share or 19% of market capitalization). </li>
<li>Trading at 9.9x PE and demonstrating pricing power/profit growth of 10-15% CAGR (with a dividend yield of 5.4%), this is a name to explore.</li>
</ul>



Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)  reported steady growth in Q2 2025, with revenues and profits increasing by 7.3% and 20.7% YoY. Volume/Pricing grew 1%/6.3% YoY as company offset excise-duty increases.
EBITDA margins were maintained at 16.8%, while the company saw its net cash and investments stable at 16.1 billion pesos (56 pesos/share or 19% of market capitalization). 
Trading at 9.9x PE and demonstrating pricing power/profit growth of 10-15% CAGR (with a dividend yield of 5.4%), this is a name to explore.


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q2 2025: A Solid Result, Market Leader At <10x PE, With A >35% ROCE

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.</li>
<li>We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.</li>
<li>We update our readers on developments in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-terminals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22959:1" rel="noopener">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
</ul>


We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
We update our readers on developments in Asian Terminals (ATI PM) and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - June 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> reported a solid Q3 FY24, with revenues/profits up 15%/25% YoY, led by 5% volume growth (10% YTD growth).</li>
<li>Net cash and investments are now &gt;15 bn pesos (21% of market capitalization). For Q4 2024, the company paid a dividend of 4 pesos/share (6.2% dividend yield). </li>
<li>This is one of the cheapest liquor companies we know, trading at 10x FY24 PE/6.3 EV-EBITDA. It has a &gt;33% ROCE and a great growth/dividend payment profile.</li>
</ul>



Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported a solid Q3 FY24, with revenues/profits up 15%/25% YoY, led by 5% volume growth (10% YTD growth).
Net cash and investments are now &gt;15 bn pesos (21% of market capitalization). For Q4 2024, the company paid a dividend of 4 pesos/share (6.2% dividend yield). 
This is one of the cheapest liquor companies we know, trading at 10x FY24 PE/6.3 EV-EBITDA. It has a &gt;33% ROCE and a great growth/dividend payment profile.


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q3 2024: Solid Set of Numbers And Increasing Dividends

Philippines

Ginebra San Miguel, Inc. is a Philippines-based company engaged in the manufacture and sale of alcoholic beverages, including gins, brandies, wines, and distilled spirits such as vodka and rum. It is the world's largest gin producer by volume and markets brands like Ginebra San Miguel Gin, GSM Blue Gin, Primera Light Brandy, and Vino Kulafu. The company is headquartered in Mandaluyong City, Philippines, and was founded in 1834.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)

GINEBRA SAN MIGUEL INC. (GSMI PM): Slight Stalling of Growth >35% ROCE and 7.4% Yield Intact

Debt-free Philippine gin monopolist compounding on price and margin, not volume: 28.3% gross margin is a series high, but two quarters of...

Sameer Taneja

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - September 2026

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety, and updates...

Sameer Taneja