Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genuine-biotech-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36220:1" rel="noopener">Genuine Biotech (GBL HK)</a> has filed for HK listing. Its Azvudine received NMPA approval for the treatment of COVID-19 in July 2022 to become the first China-made oral COVID-19 drug.</li>
<li>Azvudine was conditionally approved by the NMPA for the treatment of HIV infection in July 2021. However, the drug is yet to be commercialized.</li>
<li>Genuine Biotech plans to use the IPO proceeds for the commercialization of Azvudine. The company’s current cash balance can maintain its financial viability for approximately 20 months.</li>
</ul>



Genuine Biotech (GBL HK) has filed for HK listing. Its Azvudine received NMPA approval for the treatment of COVID-19 in July 2022 to become the first China-made oral COVID-19 drug.
Azvudine was conditionally approved by the NMPA for the treatment of HIV infection in July 2021. However, the drug is yet to be commercialized.
Genuine Biotech plans to use the IPO proceeds for the commercialization of Azvudine. The company’s current cash balance can maintain its financial viability for approximately 20 months.


Genuine Biotech (GBL HK): COVID Pill No Longer Attractive Opportunity; Thin Pipeline Mars Conviction

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.</li>
<li>Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.</li>
<li>This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.</li>
</ul>


A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.
Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.
This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.


Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

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 <div class='content-caption'>Share buyback</div>
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For the 5 trading sessions that spanned Apr 1 to 7, the Straits Times Index (STI) declined 0.1 per cent, with the FTSE China A50 Index gaining 1.0 per cent, the Hang Seng Index declining 0.4 per cent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI adding 1.0 per cent.

Overall, institutions were net sellers over the 5 sessions with S$124 million of net outflow. DBS Group Holdings, UOB, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, OCBC, and Singapore Press Holdings led the net institutional outflows for the 5 sessions through to Apr 7.

Meanwhile, City Developments, Mapletree North Commercial Asia Trust, Singapore Exchange, Singapore Telecommunications and Sembcorp Industries received the highest net institutional inflows for the 5 sessions. This brings total net institutional inflows in the 2022 year to Apr 7 to S$1.0 billion. Share buybacks

There were 16 primary-listed stocks conducting share buybacks over the 5 sessions with a total consideration of S$13.2 million, up from S$11.9 million for the preceding week. OCBC, Hong Fok Corporation and Raffles Medical Group led the buyback consideration tally. The trio were also the 3 stocks which lodged the highest buyback consideration over the preceding 5 sessions.

OCBC paid an average price of S$12.34 per share, Hong Fok paid an average price of 88.1 cents per share, while Raffles Medical Group paid an average price of S$1.16 per share. As of Apr 7, Hong Fok had bought back 0.71 per cent of its shares (excluding treasury shares) on the current share buyback mandate.  Director and substantial shareholder transactions

The 5 trading sessions saw close to 90 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for more than 30 primary-listed stocks. This included 7 company director acquisitions with no disposals filed, while substantial shareholders filed 5 acquisitions and 4 disposals.

SinoCloud Group

On Apr 4, SinoCloud Group substantial shareholder Terence Joe Lam Cho Ying sold in aggregate 3,437,557,250 shares of the Catalist-listed company to Zhang Dai. Of the 3,437,557,250 shares, 2,209,952,100 shares were held directly by Lam and 1,227,605,150 shares were held by Alternus Capital, a company wholly-owned by Lam.

Dai increased his total interest in SinoCloud Group from 1.6 per cent to 23.3 per cent, while Lam reduced his total interest in the company from 27.0 per cent to 5.3 per cent.

SinoCloud announced on Apr 6, that the group had obtained continuing support from Lam and Alternus Capital, to enable the group to operate as a going concern and to meet its obligations as and when they fall due.

In view of this share disposal, the management of the company has also reached out to Zhang to engage in further discussions with him, in particular, whether he intends to furnish the financial support to the group. The company will provide updates to shareholders in due course, including but not limited to, the board's assessment of the going concern of the company.

Olam Group

On Apr 6, Olam Group non-executive and independent director Nihal Kaviratne acquired 152,800 shares of the company at S$1.77 per share and consideration of S$270,456. He maintains a 0.01 per cent direct interest in Olam Group. This followed his acquisition of 133,100 shares at S$1.79 per share on Mar 28.

Kaviratne was previously the chairman and CEO for the Unilever group across Asia, Europe and Latin America. His career with the Unilever Group spanned 40 years which also covered senior level management positions in sales, marketing, brand and strategic planning and development. Kaviratne is also a director of GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals and StarHub.

From March 15, Olam Group has replaced Olam International as the listed company. Olam Group directly holds Olam Food Ingredients, Olam Agri and Olam Global Holdco which owns Olam Ventures, and Olam Technology and Business Services as separate subsidiaries.

As maintained by the chairman non-executive and independent director, Lim Ah Doo, this structure allows the group to explore the sequential sale, spin-off or IPO of Olam Food Ingredients, Olam Agri and potentially the other businesses of the group.

Hong Fok Corporation

On Apr 1, Hong Fok Corporation executive director and joint-CEO Cheong Sim Eng acquired 80,000 shares of the listed company for a consideration of S$70,400 at an average price of 88.0 cents per share. He maintains a 20.08 per cent total interest in Hong Fok, gradually increasing his total interest in the property developer from 19.06 per cent as at the end of 2018.

His preceding acquisitions were on March 1, with 42,000 shares acquired at 74.0 cents per share and November 20, 2020, with 64,500 shares acquired at an average price of 70.7 cents per share.

Cheong is principally involved in the group's overall operations and management with greater emphasis in Singapore. He has over 37 years of experience in the property development business.

Hong Fok is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries are primarily engaged in property investment, property development and construction, property management, investment trading and investment holding and management. Despite the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the group returned to profitability in FY21 (ended Dec 31).

With tourism arrivals and tourism receipts remaining weak in 2021, revenue from the group's hotel investment property, YOTEL Singapore Orchard Road made only a small contribution to the group's revenue.

However, the group reported an uptick in sales revenue from its residential units in Concourse Skyline. This saw Hong Fok report an attributable net profit of S$38.9 million in FY21 compared to a loss of S$8.7 million in FY20.

Amos Group

Between Mar 30 and 31, Amos Group AMOS Group : 49B 0% executive chairman Kyle Shaw acquired 237,400 shares of the company at an average price of 19.9 cents per share. With a consideration of S$47,156, this increased his deemed interest in the company from 80.77 per cent to 80.90 per cent. This followed his acquisition of 465,000 shares of at an average price of 17.2 cents per share between Mar 28 and 29.

Shaw is the founder and managing partner of ShawKwei &amp; Partners, an international private equity fund manager investing in mid-market industrial and service businesses across Asia, the US, and Europe.

Huationg Global

On Mar 30, Huationg Global executive director and CEO, Patrick Ng Kian Ann acquired 200,000 shares of the Catalist-listed company at an average price of 9.7 cents per share. With a consideration of S$19,400, this increased his total interest in the company from 69.33 per cent to 69.44 per cent.

Ng has 20 years of experience in the civil engineering construction industry and is responsible for the overall management, strategic planning and oversees the business expansion of the group.

Huationg Global is principally engaged in the provision of civil engineering services for infrastructure projects and ancillary inland logistics support services.

On Mar 1, Huationg Global reported the group's FY21 (ended 31 Dec) revenue increased by approximately S$54.4 million or 47.0 per cent to S$170.4 million from S$116.0 million in FY20, mainly due to a higher level of business activities in its business segments after some easing measures from the Circuit Breaker.

The group is also involved in the sale of construction materials such as sand and granite aggregates, recycled concrete aggregate and liquefied soil stabiliser.

Hafary Holdings

On Mar 31, Hafary Holdings non-independent non-executive director Eric Low See Ching acquired 98,400 shares of the company at 19.0 cents per share. With a consideration of S$18,696, this further increased his direct interest in the company from 25.36 per cent to 25.38 per cent.

Mr Low was appointed as the non-independent non-executive director of Hafary Holdings in January 2014. Prior to this appointment, he served in the board as executive director and in the company as CEO. He joined the main subsidiary of the company, Hafary Pte Ltd, in 2000, and rose through the ranks from sales executive to CEO in 2005.

Low is also presently the executive director and deputy CEO of Oxley Holdings and an alternate director of Aspen (Group) Holdings.

Hafary Holdings is a leading building material supplier that has been defining living spaces with premium products. With over 5,000 products sourced from around the world, the group maintains it carries the largest collection of surfacing materials in Singapore.

One of the questions received in connection with the company's Annual Report 2021 pertained to whether the group had been affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly from shipping.

The group replied that as it sources its raw materials from various countries, some of its operations have been affected by such global supply change disruptions, and the group continues to monitor the situation and will make the appropriate announcements in the event that such disruptions are material. Inside Insights is a weekly column on The Business Times,<a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/hong-fok-continues-buybacks-as-joint-ceo-raises-stake-0"> read </a>the original version.
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    Share buyback


For the 5 trading sessions that spanned Apr 1 to 7, the Straits Times Index (STI) declined 0.1 per cent, with the FTSE China A50 Index gaining 1.0 per cent, the Hang Seng Index declining 0.4 per cent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI adding 1.0 per cent.

Overall, institutions were net sellers over the 5 sessions with S$124 million of net outflow. DBS Group Holdings, UOB, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, OCBC, and Singapore Press Holdings led the net institutional outflows for the 5 sessions through to Apr 7.

Meanwhile, City Developments, Mapletree North Commercial Asia Trust, Singapore Exchange, Singapore Telecommunications and Sembcorp Industries received the highest net institutional inflows for the 5 sessions. This brings total net institutional inflows in the 2022 year to Apr 7 to S$1.0 billion.  Share buybacks

There were 16 primary-listed stocks conducting share buybacks over the 5 sessions with a total consideration of S$13.2 million, up from S$11.9 million for the preceding week. OCBC, Hong Fok Corporation and Raffles Medical Group led the buyback consideration tally. The trio were also the 3 stocks which lodged the highest buyback consideration over the preceding 5 sessions.

OCBC paid an average price of S$12.34 per share, Hong Fok paid an average price of 88.1 cents per share, while Raffles Medical Group paid an average price of S$1.16 per share. As of Apr 7, Hong Fok had bought back 0.71 per cent of its shares (excluding treasury shares) on the current share buyback mandate.   Director and substantial shareholder transactions

The 5 trading sessions saw close to 90 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for more than 30 primary-listed stocks. This included 7 company director acquisitions with no disposals filed, while substantial shareholders filed 5 acquisitions and 4 disposals.

SinoCloud Group

On Apr 4, SinoCloud Group substantial shareholder Terence Joe Lam Cho Ying sold in aggregate 3,437,557,250 shares of the Catalist-listed company to Zhang Dai. Of the 3,437,557,250 shares, 2,209,952,100 shares were held directly by Lam and 1,227,605,150 shares were held by Alternus Capital, a company wholly-owned by Lam.

Dai increased his total interest in SinoCloud Group from 1.6 per cent to 23.3 per cent, while Lam reduced his total interest in the company from 27.0 per cent to 5.3 per cent.

SinoCloud announced on Apr 6, that the group had obtained continuing support from Lam and Alternus Capital, to enable the group to operate as a going concern and to meet its obligations as and when they fall due.

In view of this share disposal, the management of the company has also reached out to Zhang to engage in further discussions with him, in particular, whether he intends to furnish the financial support to the group. The company will provide updates to shareholders in due course, including but not limited to, the board's assessment of the going concern of the company.

Olam Group

On Apr 6, Olam Group non-executive and independent director Nihal Kaviratne acquired 152,800 shares of the company at S$1.77 per share and consideration of S$270,456. He maintains a 0.01 per cent direct interest in Olam Group. This followed his acquisition of 133,100 shares at S$1.79 per share on Mar 28.

Kaviratne was previously the chairman and CEO for the Unilever group across Asia, Europe and Latin America. His career with the Unilever Group spanned 40 years which also covered senior level management positions in sales, marketing, brand and strategic planning and development. Kaviratne is also a director of GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals and StarHub.

From March 15, Olam Group has replaced Olam International as the listed company. Olam Group directly holds Olam Food Ingredients, Olam Agri and Olam Global Holdco which owns Olam Ventures, and Olam Technology and Business Services as separate subsidiaries.

As maintained by the chairman non-executive and independent director, Lim Ah Doo, this structure allows the group to explore the sequential sale, spin-off or IPO of Olam Food Ingredients, Olam Agri and potentially the other businesses of the group.

Hong Fok Corporation

On Apr 1, Hong Fok Corporation executive director and joint-CEO Cheong Sim Eng acquired 80,000 shares of the listed company for a consideration of S$70,400 at an average price of 88.0 cents per share. He maintains a 20.08 per cent total interest in Hong Fok, gradually increasing his total interest in the property developer from 19.06 per cent as at the end of 2018.

His preceding acquisitions were on March 1, with 42,000 shares acquired at 74.0 cents per share and November 20, 2020, with 64,500 shares acquired at an average price of 70.7 cents per share.

Cheong is principally involved in the group's overall operations and management with greater emphasis in Singapore. He has over 37 years of experience in the property development business.

Hong Fok is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries are primarily engaged in property investment, property development and construction, property management, investment trading and investment holding and management. Despite the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the group returned to profitability in FY21 (ended Dec 31).

With tourism arrivals and tourism receipts remaining weak in 2021, revenue from the group's hotel investment property, YOTEL Singapore Orchard Road made only a small contribution to the group's revenue.

However, the group reported an uptick in sales revenue from its residential units in Concourse Skyline. This saw Hong Fok report an attributable net profit of S$38.9 million in FY21 compared to a loss of S$8.7 million in FY20.

Amos Group

Between Mar 30 and 31, Amos Group AMOS Group : 49B 0% executive chairman Kyle Shaw acquired 237,400 shares of the company at an average price of 19.9 cents per share. With a consideration of S$47,156, this increased his deemed interest in the company from 80.77 per cent to 80.90 per cent. This followed his acquisition of 465,000 shares of at an average price of 17.2 cents per share between Mar 28 and 29.

Shaw is the founder and managing partner of ShawKwei &amp; Partners, an international private equity fund manager investing in mid-market industrial and service businesses across Asia, the US, and Europe.

Huationg Global

On Mar 30, Huationg Global executive director and CEO, Patrick Ng Kian Ann acquired 200,000 shares of the Catalist-listed company at an average price of 9.7 cents per share. With a consideration of S$19,400, this increased his total interest in the company from 69.33 per cent to 69.44 per cent.

Ng has 20 years of experience in the civil engineering construction industry and is responsible for the overall management, strategic planning and oversees the business expansion of the group.

Huationg Global is principally engaged in the provision of civil engineering services for infrastructure projects and ancillary inland logistics support services.

On Mar 1, Huationg Global reported the group's FY21 (ended 31 Dec) revenue increased by approximately S$54.4 million or 47.0 per cent to S$170.4 million from S$116.0 million in FY20, mainly due to a higher level of business activities in its business segments after some easing measures from the Circuit Breaker.

The group is also involved in the sale of construction materials such as sand and granite aggregates, recycled concrete aggregate and liquefied soil stabiliser.

Hafary Holdings

On Mar 31, Hafary Holdings non-independent non-executive director Eric Low See Ching acquired 98,400 shares of the company at 19.0 cents per share. With a consideration of S$18,696, this further increased his direct interest in the company from 25.36 per cent to 25.38 per cent.

Mr Low was appointed as the non-independent non-executive director of Hafary Holdings in January 2014. Prior to this appointment, he served in the board as executive director and in the company as CEO. He joined the main subsidiary of the company, Hafary Pte Ltd, in 2000, and rose through the ranks from sales executive to CEO in 2005.

Low is also presently the executive director and deputy CEO of Oxley Holdings and an alternate director of Aspen (Group) Holdings.

Hafary Holdings is a leading building material supplier that has been defining living spaces with premium products. With over 5,000 products sourced from around the world, the group maintains it carries the largest collection of surfacing materials in Singapore.

One of the questions received in connection with the company's Annual Report 2021 pertained to whether the group had been affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly from shipping.

The group replied that as it sources its raw materials from various countries, some of its operations have been affected by such global supply change disruptions, and the group continues to monitor the situation and will make the appropriate announcements in the event that such disruptions are material.  Inside Insights is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



Hong Fok continues buybacks as joint-CEO raises stake

United Kingdom

GlaxoSmithKline PLC operates as a research-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets vaccines, prescription, and over-the-counter medicines, as well as health-related consumer products. GlaxoSmithKline provides products for infections, depression, skin conditions, asthma, heart and circulatory disease, and cancer.

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GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN)

Genuine Biotech (GBL HK): COVID Pill No Longer Attractive Opportunity; Thin Pipeline Mars Conviction

Genuine Biotech has filed for Hong Kong listing to raise funds to commercialize its newly approved drug. The company’s Azvudine is the first China...

Tina Banerjee

Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

A bear market bounce is underway after the SPX, QQQ, and IWM found support at their respective downtrend channels. Until these indexes can break...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Hong Fok continues buybacks as joint-CEO raises stake

For the 5 trading sessions that spanned Apr 1 to 7, the Straits Times Index (STI) declined 0.1 per cent, with the FTSE China...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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