Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Rio–Glencore failed not on strategy but arithmetic: at realistic synergies, premiums above low-20% compressed post-deal returns toward or below Rio’s 8.5% WACC, leaving no margin for execution risk.</li>
<li>Glencore’s ~40% premium ask was internally rational given governance asymmetry, but mechanically incompatible with Rio’s return discipline once exchange ratios, peer multiples and copper delivery risk were fully quantified.</li>
<li>The case reinforces a higher M&amp;A bar in mining: visible, self-funded synergies and deferred value recognition now matter more than scale, copper optionality or strategic narratives.</li>
</ul>


Rio–Glencore failed not on strategy but arithmetic: at realistic synergies, premiums above low-20% compressed post-deal returns toward or below Rio’s 8.5% WACC, leaving no margin for execution risk.
Glencore’s ~40% premium ask was internally rational given governance asymmetry, but mechanically incompatible with Rio’s return discipline once exchange ratios, peer multiples and copper delivery risk were fully quantified.
The case reinforces a higher M&amp;A bar in mining: visible, self-funded synergies and deferred value recognition now matter more than scale, copper optionality or strategic narratives.


Rio–Glencore: Why the Numbers Never Cleared and What It Means for Mining M&A

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2024-high-conviction-junior-copper-miners" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:122425" rel="noopener">2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners</a> garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.</li>
<li>Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN) </a>has performed strongest +22% while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40384:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY)</a> has been a laggard at -18% YTD.</li>
</ul>


Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.
Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +22% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -18% YTD.


Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Agricultural Bank of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

Switzerland

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

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Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Rio–Glencore: Why the Numbers Never Cleared and What It Means for Mining M&A

Rio–Glencore didn’t fail on strategy but on numbers. Using undisturbed prices, exchange ratios and WACC, even modest premiums left no return...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market.

Pranav Rao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Rio–Glencore: Why the Numbers Never Cleared and What It Means for Mining M&A

Rio–Glencore didn’t fail on strategy but on numbers. Using undisturbed prices, exchange ratios and WACC, even modest premiums left no return...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

​Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market.

Pranav Rao

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.