Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook supported by a cast of multi-year base patterns (esp. in Europe and Japan), weakness in defensive sectors, and strength in cyclicals. In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:<ul><li>Buy energy, miners. Discussed above... see pages 3-6</li><li>Autos are strengthening. Developed market auto stocks, a lagging group for the past three years, present an opportunity. Names like BMW (BMW-DE), Ford (F), Peugeot (UG-FR), and Toyota (TM) are breaking out/bullishly inflecting... see pages 7-8</li></ul>

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook supported by a cast of multi-year base patterns (esp. in Europe and Japan), weakness in defensive sectors, and strength in cyclicals. In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:Buy energy, miners. Discussed above... see pages 3-6Autos are strengthening. Developed market auto stocks, a lagging group for the past three years, present an opportunity. Names like BMW (BMW-DE), Ford (F), Peugeot (UG-FR), and Toyota (TM) are breaking out/bullishly inflecting... see pages 7-8

Int'l Compass: Inflation Trade Is Gathering Steam -- Buy Energy, Miners, Autos; Stay Overweight EM

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass  But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Rich Zinc Reserves to Buoy Increasing Mine OutputWith about 107 million tonnes of zinc metal reserves, India ranks 6th globally. The country also operates the largest zinc mine in the world at Rampura Agucha which has a production capacity of 6.15 metric tonnes per annum. Zinc ore and concentrate production in India lie solely with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8688" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1">Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZ IN)</a>(HZL) which was divested by the Government of India in 2002-03. As of today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/514" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> owns 64.92% of the company, putting zinc…

Rich Zinc Reserves to Buoy Increasing Mine OutputWith about 107 million tonnes of zinc metal reserves, India ranks 6th globally. The country also operates the largest zinc mine in the world at Rampura Agucha which has a production capacity of 6.15 metric tonnes per annum. Zinc ore and concentrate production in India lie solely with Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZ IN)(HZL) which was divested by the Government of India in 2002-03. As of today, Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) owns 64.92% of the company, putting zinc…

Rising Metal Prices and Debt Obligations of Vedanta to Spur Zinc Mining in India

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

Equity Bottom-Up

In our last note on Dowa Holdings on 17 Feb we turned cautious due to the rapid run up in the price since our first buy recommendation (+35% in 5 months), probable conservative guidance, weakening zinc TCs and a lack of recovery in the electronic materials segment. Since then the share price has dropped 14% despite Topix and Nikkei only declining 1% and we feel that the negative catalysts may now be close to priced in.We turn more bullish once again, partly due to valuation, but mostly as a…

In our last note on Dowa Holdings on 17 Feb we turned cautious due to the rapid run up in the price since our first buy recommendation (+35% in 5 months), probable conservative guidance, weakening zinc TCs and a lack of recovery in the electronic materials segment. Since then the share price has dropped 14% despite Topix and Nikkei only declining 1% and we feel that the negative catalysts may now be close to priced in.We turn more bullish once again, partly due to valuation, but mostly as a…

Zinc Prospects and Share Price Fall Make Dowa a Buy Again

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and global reflation; positioning has shifted accordingly.</li>
<li><div>The value over momentum positioning advocated all year has paid off dramatically - globally, value has outperformed by about 20 ppts since July, the second-best run versus quality in almost 40 years.</div></li>
<li><div>Calling the oil market right in 2016 was critical to everything else in asset allocation including…</div></li>
</ul>


The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and global reflation; positioning has shifted accordingly.
The value over momentum positioning advocated all year has paid off dramatically - globally, value has outperformed by about 20 ppts since July, the second-best run versus quality in almost 40 years.
Calling the oil market right in 2016 was critical to everything else in asset allocation including…


2017 Asset Allocation Outlook – Part 2: Trump Reflation Euphoria to Fade?

Switzerland

Glencore plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups, metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural products. Glencore offers its products and services around the world.

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Glencore PLC (GLE HK)

Int'l Compass: Inflation Trade Is Gathering Steam -- Buy Energy, Miners, Autos; Stay Overweight EM

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook...

Vermilion Research

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

Rising Metal Prices and Debt Obligations of Vedanta to Spur Zinc Mining in India

Rich Zinc Reserves to Buoy Increasing Mine OutputWith about 107 million tonnes of zinc metal reserves, India ranks 6th globally. The country also...

Speeda Research

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook – Part 2: Trump Reflation Euphoria to Fade?

The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and...

Sean Maher

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Int'l Compass: Inflation Trade Is Gathering Steam -- Buy Energy, Miners, Autos; Stay Overweight EM

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook...

Vermilion Research

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

Rising Metal Prices and Debt Obligations of Vedanta to Spur Zinc Mining in India

Rich Zinc Reserves to Buoy Increasing Mine OutputWith about 107 million tonnes of zinc metal reserves, India ranks 6th globally. The country also...

Speeda Research

Zinc Prospects and Share Price Fall Make Dowa a Buy Again

In our last note on Dowa Holdings on 17 Feb we turned cautious due to the rapid run up in the price since our first buy recommendation (+35% in 5...

Mio Kato

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook – Part 2: Trump Reflation Euphoria to Fade?

The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and...

Sean Maher