Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our Recommendation – Stay Overweight Commodities: We forecast the bullish trends in Commodity pricing, which has been underway since 1Q16, to continue. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) we track remain in an uptrend, which is supportive for further pricing gains over the coming 3-6 months. We prefer late-cycle Metals such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22872" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22872:1">Copper (COPPER COMDTY)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26790" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26790:1">Nickel (NICKEL COMDTY)</a> and Tin, which should continue to support the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19226" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19226:1">Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11174" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1">Timah Persero Tbk Pt (TINS IJ)</a> in the…

Our Recommendation – Stay Overweight Commodities: We forecast the bullish trends in Commodity pricing, which has been underway since 1Q16, to continue. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) we track remain in an uptrend, which is supportive for further pricing gains over the coming 3-6 months. We prefer late-cycle Metals such as Copper (COPPER COMDTY), Nickel (NICKEL COMDTY) and Tin, which should continue to support the shares of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO IJ) and Timah Persero Tbk Pt (TINS IJ) in the…

Stay Bullish Commodities; Despite Feb Pause

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.</li></ul>

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Since earlier this year, I cautioned the “Business as Usual” / “no change” solution favored by the consensus as unlikely to happen in Brexit energy negotiations. With the UK leaving the EU Single Energy Market, we could expect a resurgence in market dislocations and energy prices volatility. Since the triggering of Article 50 by the UK, 8 months ago, the situation is still as unclear as from day 1. But the industry is starting to realize that Westminster wishful thinking is not likely to happen…

Since earlier this year, I cautioned the “Business as Usual” / “no change” solution favored by the consensus as unlikely to happen in Brexit energy negotiations. With the UK leaving the EU Single Energy Market, we could expect a resurgence in market dislocations and energy prices volatility. Since the triggering of Article 50 by the UK, 8 months ago, the situation is still as unclear as from day 1. But the industry is starting to realize that Westminster wishful thinking is not likely to happen…

Brexit: The Clock Is Ticking and Little Has Been Achieved in Energy

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

In Today's Issue<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Area</td>
<td>Item</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Economic/Commodities</td>
<td>
<ul>
<li>LOW VOLATILITY AND HIGH RETURNS PUT EMERGING MARKETS AT THE TOP</li>
<li>MARKETS ARE EXPENSIVE</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Policy Led</td>
<td>
<ul>
<li>CHINA LOOKING AT LICENSING ONLINE LENDERS</li>
<li>SAUDI SHAKE UP MORE THOUGHTS</li>
<li>LOTTE RECEIVED ITS APPROVAL FOR CHINESE PROJECT</li>
<li>INDIAN PUTTING SAND IN THE WHEELS OF TRADE WITH CHIN</li>
<li>NORD STREAM 2 HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR EASTERN EUROPE</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Management Specific</td>
<td>
<ul>
<li>SAN MIGUEL RESTRUCTURES</li>
<li>RAUBEX LOOKING FOR M&amp;A</li>
<li>QATAR AIRLINES TAKES STAKE IN CATHAY</li>
<li>QUALCOMM AND BROADCOM DEAL</li>
<li>SHELL…</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

In Today's Issue

Area
Item


Economic/Commodities


LOW VOLATILITY AND HIGH RETURNS PUT EMERGING MARKETS AT THE TOP
MARKETS ARE EXPENSIVE




Policy Led


CHINA LOOKING AT LICENSING ONLINE LENDERS
SAUDI SHAKE UP MORE THOUGHTS
LOTTE RECEIVED ITS APPROVAL FOR CHINESE PROJECT
INDIAN PUTTING SAND IN THE WHEELS OF TRADE WITH CHIN
NORD STREAM 2 HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR EASTERN EUROPE




Management Specific


SAN MIGUEL RESTRUCTURES
RAUBEX LOOKING FOR M&amp;A
QATAR AIRLINES TAKES STAKE IN CATHAY
QUALCOMM AND BROADCOM DEAL
SHELL…





Switzerland

Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies. It produces, sources, markets, and recycles a wide range of raw materials including metals, minerals, and energy products essential for everyday life and the transition to a low-carbon economy. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

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Glencore (GLEN LN)

Stay Bullish Commodities; Despite Feb Pause

Our Recommendation – Stay Overweight Commodities: We forecast the bullish trends in Commodity pricing, which has been underway since 1Q16, to...

Charles Spencer

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past...

Vermilion Research

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

Brexit: The Clock Is Ticking and Little Has Been Achieved in Energy

Since earlier this year, I cautioned the “Business as Usual” / “no change” solution favored by the consensus as unlikely to happen in Brexit energy...

Thierry Bros, PhD

21 Things Worth Knowing (#9)

In Today's Issue1. San Miguel Corporation (SMC PM) announced a restructuring of the group including a share swap with San Miguel Pure Foods Co Inc...

Mark Artherton

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