Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market has retreated below its support/resistance level of 27100 as investors adopt a risk-off sentiment since the war started 3 weeks ago.</li>
<li>Value and dividend yield have been the best performing investment factors in 2026 YTD.  The energy sector is now up 31% this year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-risun-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27956:1" rel="noopener">China Risun Group (1907 HK)</a> , the world's largest independent coking coal producer, saw a breakout for its share price as its hydrogen and chemical businesses benefit from higher prices.
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market has retreated below its support/resistance level of 27100 as investors adopt a risk-off sentiment since the war started 3 weeks ago.
Value and dividend yield have been the best performing investment factors in 2026 YTD.  The energy sector is now up 31% this year.

China Risun Group (1907 HK) , the world's largest independent coking coal producer, saw a breakout for its share price as its hydrogen and chemical businesses benefit from higher prices.



Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (March 20)

<ul>
<li>After breaking resistance in January, the Hong Kong market is rangebound as sector rotation into energy, industrials and financials occurs before the next leg up in its Secular Bull Market.</li>
<li>As the tech and healthcare sectors lose momentum, the value factor has emerged as an outperformer so far in 2026.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingboard-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8122:1" rel="noopener">Kingboard Holdings (148 HK)</a> broke out to new highs with technical momentum and strength indicators support the move.  
</li>
</ul>


After breaking resistance in January, the Hong Kong market is rangebound as sector rotation into energy, industrials and financials occurs before the next leg up in its Secular Bull Market.
As the tech and healthcare sectors lose momentum, the value factor has emerged as an outperformer so far in 2026.  

Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) broke out to new highs with technical momentum and strength indicators support the move.  



Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (February 13)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.</li>
<li>ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.</li>
<li>DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.
ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.
DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.


HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.
In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.
Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.


HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 53 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 532.</li>
<li>We expect 44 of the 53 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 9 March. 25 of the 28 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
<li>On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have massively outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 53 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 532.
We expect 44 of the 53 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 9 March. 25 of the 28 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have massively outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 53 Adds, 28 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

Hong Kong

Global New Material International produces and sells pearlescent pigments, functional mica fillers, and related products. Its diverse product portfolio includes natural and synthetic mica-based pearlescent pigments, used in cosmetics, automotive, coatings, plastics, and electronics. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Liuzhou, People's Republic of China.

Global New Material International (6616 HK)

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Global New Material International (6616 HK)

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (March 20)

The Hong Kong market has retreated below its support/resistance level of 27100 as investors adopt a risk-off sentiment since the war started 3...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (February 13)

After breaking resistance in January, the Hong Kong market is rangebound as sector rotation into energy, industrials and financials occurs before...

David Mudd

HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

HK Connect Mar 2026 implementation cycle is completing. ADD reversed the WAI drawdown at implementation. DELETE continuation worked post...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance: 53 Adds, 28 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 53 adds and 28 deletes for the HSCI in March. For Stock Connect, we expect 44 adds and 25 deletes. The forecast Connect adds have...

Brian Freitas

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