Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Thai exports are likely to continue contracting in 2023E amid the economic slowdowns in key trading partners, namely the US and Europe, which are facing risk of recessions.</li><li>However, we view that China’s reopening may boost Thai exports to the country, which have declined for seven straight months, enabling them to eventually turn positive and thereby pushing up the overall export sector this year.</li><li>As for our investment view, we are bearish on export stocks, as they will not only be negatively impacted by the global economic slowdown but also by the appreciation of the baht, especially with the US economy at risk of a recession, as this would reduce the value of export revenue in baht terms for export-related firms.</li></ul>

Thai exports are likely to continue contracting in 2023E amid the economic slowdowns in key trading partners, namely the US and Europe, which are facing risk of recessions.However, we view that China’s reopening may boost Thai exports to the country, which have declined for seven straight months, enabling them to eventually turn positive and thereby pushing up the overall export sector this year.As for our investment view, we are bearish on export stocks, as they will not only be negatively impacted by the global economic slowdown but also by the appreciation of the baht, especially with the US economy at risk of a recession, as this would reduce the value of export revenue in baht terms for export-related firms.

Exports & Imports - Thai Exports in December Contracted by 14.6% YoY

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from Exxon Mobil.</li>
<li>The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.</li>
<li>Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil.
The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.
Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. 


Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to Bt331m (-82% YoY)</li>
<li>Weak 3Q22 performance GPSC reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt331.0m (-82% YoY, -52% QoQ), which was lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>The YoY and QoQ earnings drop were caused mainly due to a significantly higher natural gas (+110%YoY,+33%QoQ) and coal price (+236% YoY, +73% QoQ) which resulted in lower SPP margins.</li>
</ul>


We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to Bt331m (-82% YoY)
Weak 3Q22 performance GPSC reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt331.0m (-82% YoY, -52% QoQ), which was lower than our expectation.
The YoY and QoQ earnings drop were caused mainly due to a significantly higher natural gas (+110%YoY,+33%QoQ) and coal price (+236% YoY, +73% QoQ) which resulted in lower SPP margins.


GPSC : Rising Gas Prices Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

<ul>
<li>Thailand's state-owned energy firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT (PTT TB)</a> recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.</li>
<li>Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.</li>
<li>PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's state-owned energy firm PTT (PTT TB) recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.
Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.
PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.


PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

<ul>
<li>We maintain our HOLD rating due to limited upside following the rise in gas cost in 2H22. GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit doubled QoQ to Bt684m (-70%YoY),in line with our expectations.</li>
<li>2Q22 earnings improved QoQ but dropped YoY GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit improved QoQ to Bt684m (-70% YoY, 118% QoQ). The results came out in line with our expectations.  </li>
<li>GPM in 2Q22 improved to 5.4% QoQ (vs 2.6% in 1Q22) while worsened YoY (18.3% in 2Q21).  </li>
</ul>


We maintain our HOLD rating due to limited upside following the rise in gas cost in 2H22. GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit doubled QoQ to Bt684m (-70%YoY),in line with our expectations.
2Q22 earnings improved QoQ but dropped YoY GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit improved QoQ to Bt684m (-70% YoY, 118% QoQ). The results came out in line with our expectations.  
GPM in 2Q22 improved to 5.4% QoQ (vs 2.6% in 1Q22) while worsened YoY (18.3% in 2Q21).  


Thailand

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd. (GPSC) provides utilities services. The Company generates and distributes electricity, steam, and processed water. GPSC serves customers in Thailand.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

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Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

Exports & Imports - Thai Exports in December Contracted by 14.6% YoY

Thai exports are likely to continue contracting in 2023E amid the economic slowdowns in key trading partners, namely the US and Europe, which are...

Krungthai XSpring

Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Without a quantum shift in Esso's fundamentals over the next 6-8 months, this is a takeunder. A 17% fall is excessive. Shareholders should ignore...

David Blennerhassett

GPSC : Rising Gas Prices Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.

David Blennerhassett

GPSC : 2Q22 Earnings Recovered QoQ

We maintain our HOLD rating due to limited upside following the rise in gas cost in 2H22. GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit doubled QoQ to Bt684m (-70% YoY),...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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