Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.</li>
<li>
Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. </li>
<li>
Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.</li>
</ul>



Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.

Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. 

Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.


RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.</li>
<li>
Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.</li>
<li>This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.

Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.
This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.


Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:541:1" rel="noopener">Bank of India (BOI IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.</li>
<li>The potential relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.</li>
<li>This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.</li>
</ul>


The Bank of India (BOI IN) vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.
The potential relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.


Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Premier Energies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-energies-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42190:1" rel="noopener">Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN)</a> is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. </li>
<li>It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&amp;M) services. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. 
It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&amp;M) services. 
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Aadhar Housing Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aadhar-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32152:1" rel="noopener">Aadhar Housing Finance</a> (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO - Larger and Slower, at a Reasonable Discount

Australia

Global X India Nifty 50 ETF is an exchange traded fund incorporated in Australia. The Fund aims to provide investors with a return that (before fees and expenses) tracks the performance of the NIFTY 50 Index by holding all of the shares that make up the index closely in proportion to their index weights.

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Global X India Nifty 50 ETF (NDIA AU)

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

A data-driven look at how the Nifty 50 has historically reacted to RBI policy decisions - and what current options pricing signals for August 6.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

Price-ratio deviation between Bank of India and Union Bank of India signals potential pair trade opportunity. Target return discussed.

Gaudenz Schneider

Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV)...

Ethan Aw

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO - Larger and Slower, at a Reasonable Discount

Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

A data-driven look at how the Nifty 50 has historically reacted to RBI policy decisions - and what current options pricing signals for August 6.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

​Price-ratio deviation between Bank of India and Union Bank of India signals potential pair trade opportunity. Target return discussed.

Gaudenz Schneider

Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV)...

Ethan Aw

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO - Larger and Slower, at a Reasonable Discount

Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Price-ratio deviation between Bank of India and Union Bank of India signals potential pair trade opportunity. Target return discussed.