Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done</li>
<li>TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.</li>
<li>Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?</li>
</ul>


Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done
TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.
Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?


UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>It is a paradox US President wanted to make the US the number one semiconductor manufacturing country but is very likely unable to change the existing environment in the US.</li>
<li>Another paradox is that a foreign company must obtain approval from the relevant US authorities before transferring control of the specific US company, which may not be feasible.</li>
<li>It raises the third paradox that a Taiwanese company would need to operate an existing US entity with their company's expertise under different cost conditions.  </li>
</ul>


It is a paradox US President wanted to make the US the number one semiconductor manufacturing country but is very likely unable to change the existing environment in the US.
Another paradox is that a foreign company must obtain approval from the relevant US authorities before transferring control of the specific US company, which may not be feasible.
It raises the third paradox that a Taiwanese company would need to operate an existing US entity with their company's expertise under different cost conditions.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes...

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent challenges in its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.</li><li>On the positive side, the fourth quarter slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company's revenue guidance, achieving approximately $1.83 billion, although this was a minor 1% decline compared to the same quarter in the prior year.</li><li>The company also reported a significant milestone, as it generated over $1 billion in adjusted free cash flow, exceeding its target and marking robust performance despite industry headwinds.</li></ul>

GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent challenges in its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.On the positive side, the fourth quarter slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company's revenue guidance, achieving approximately $1.83 billion, although this was a minor 1% decline compared to the same quarter in the prior year.The company also reported a significant milestone, as it generated over $1 billion in adjusted free cash flow, exceeding its target and marking robust performance despite industry headwinds.

GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.</li>
<li>We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  </li>
<li>It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

<ul>
<li>The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> respectively.</li>
<li>Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.</li>
<li>The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.</li>
</ul>


The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) respectively.
Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.
The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.


The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes...

US President's goal of making the US the top semiconductor manufacturing country faces paradoxes due to existing environment, approval...

Patrick Liao

GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?

GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent...

Baptista Research

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

​Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes...

​US President's goal of making the US the top semiconductor manufacturing country faces paradoxes due to existing environment, approval...

Patrick Liao

GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?

GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent...

Baptista Research

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

​US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

US President's goal of making the US the top semiconductor manufacturing country faces paradoxes due to existing environment, approval...

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...