Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Four former Intel board members, led by David Yoffie, with a combined 70 years of service, publish an article highly critical of Intel's current management &amp; board</li>
<li>The article claims that the only solution to Intel's woes is to completely separate the foundry business into an entirely separate entity, similar to what AMD did with GlobalFoundries</li>
<li>Curiously, the article also proposes that the US government leverages its CHIPs Act funding to force Intel's management to make the split</li>
</ul>


Four former Intel board members, led by David Yoffie, with a combined 70 years of service, publish an article highly critical of Intel's current management &amp; board
The article claims that the only solution to Intel's woes is to completely separate the foundry business into an entirely separate entity, similar to what AMD did with GlobalFoundries
Curiously, the article also proposes that the US government leverages its CHIPs Act funding to force Intel's management to make the split


Intel. Pressure Mounts As Four Former Board Members Speak Out

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia is not upset with TSMC after all. Samsung is losing another customer to TSMC at 3nm</li>
<li>Legacy Foundry Overcapacity as Chinese firms are over-extending, expect Pricing Pressure (GlobalFoundries, Hua Hong, SMIC, UMC)</li>
<li>Progress in China: new Loongson CPU and GPU. Lithography Photoresist</li>
</ul>


Nvidia is not upset with TSMC after all. Samsung is losing another customer to TSMC at 3nm
Legacy Foundry Overcapacity as Chinese firms are over-extending, expect Pricing Pressure (GlobalFoundries, Hua Hong, SMIC, UMC)
Progress in China: new Loongson CPU and GPU. Lithography Photoresist


Tech News This Week: TSMC, NVIDIA, Samsung, Legacy Semi, China Semi

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s </a>outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> moving out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  </li>
<li>UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) moving out of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  
UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> is a direct addition followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna (MRNA US)</a> are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. </li>
</ul>



Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) is a direct addition followed by AppLovin (APP US) which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) , ARM Holdings (ARM US) and Moderna (MRNA US) are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. 


Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

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GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel. Pressure Mounts As Four Former Board Members Speak Out

Four former Intel board members believe that foundry must be spun out into a separate entity and that if Intel's management don't do it themselves,...

William Keating

Tech News This Week: TSMC, NVIDIA, Samsung, Legacy Semi, China Semi

Nvidia's Blackwell GPU problems were Nvidia's doing, not TSMC. Samsung loses customer to TSMC at 3nm. Legacy Foundry face overcapacity, pricing...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel. Pressure Mounts As Four Former Board Members Speak Out

Four former Intel board members believe that foundry must be spun out into a separate entity and that if Intel's management don't do it themselves,...

William Keating

Tech News This Week: TSMC, NVIDIA, Samsung, Legacy Semi, China Semi

​Nvidia's Blackwell GPU problems were Nvidia's doing, not TSMC. Samsung loses customer to TSMC at 3nm. Legacy Foundry face overcapacity, pricing...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

​UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

​MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nvidia's Blackwell GPU problems were Nvidia's doing, not TSMC. Samsung loses customer to TSMC at 3nm. Legacy Foundry face overcapacity, pricing...

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...