Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.</li>
<li>Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.
Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.
Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.


TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Regarding global silicon wafer market prices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> noted that the Long-Term Agreement (LTA) for 12-inch wafers primarily focuses on advanced process nodes, with prices remaining stable.</li>
<li>In December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> signed a final agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce, expecting to receive a maximum subsidy of USD$406mn.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> has not received any notifications regarding adjustments to chip policies.</li>
</ul>


Regarding global silicon wafer market prices, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the Long-Term Agreement (LTA) for 12-inch wafers primarily focuses on advanced process nodes, with prices remaining stable.
In December 2024, Globalwafers (6488 TT) signed a final agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce, expecting to receive a maximum subsidy of USD$406mn.  

Globalwafers (6488 TT) has not received any notifications regarding adjustments to chip policies.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): An Uncertainty Exists Whether Si Wafer Is Included in US Custom Tax or Not.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>China smartphone market in 4Q 2024 expected to see growth, intensifying competition among top brands.</li><li>GlobalWafers remains stable despite uncertainty around US CHIPS Act funding.</li><li>Yageo surprises with Shibaura Electronics takeover bid, Foxconn proposes partnership with Nissan, Forces Mos wins patent case against Asus.</li></ul>

China smartphone market in 4Q 2024 expected to see growth, intensifying competition among top brands.GlobalWafers remains stable despite uncertainty around US CHIPS Act funding.Yageo surprises with Shibaura Electronics takeover bid, Foxconn proposes partnership with Nissan, Forces Mos wins patent case against Asus.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Feb-2025): China smartphone market, 4Q '24

<ul>
<li>Gross Margins Aggregate Data - Shows Taiwan Semiconductor Companies Under Pressure</li>
<li>How TSMC and GlobalWafers show two very different margin environments; However everyone needs to manage rising energy costs into 2025E</li>
<li>Aggregate Inventory Levels -- Inventory Days Declining Trend is a Positive Sign</li>
</ul>


Gross Margins Aggregate Data - Shows Taiwan Semiconductor Companies Under Pressure
How TSMC and GlobalWafers show two very different margin environments; However everyone needs to manage rising energy costs into 2025E
Aggregate Inventory Levels -- Inventory Days Declining Trend is a Positive Sign


Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Aggregate Analysis: Margins Challenged; Inventory Data Positive

<ul>
<li>TSMC October Revenue Rises 29.2% YoY; Continued Strong Growth Despite Harder YoY Comparison</li>
<li>GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Recovery Expectation Has Been Delayed from 2H24 to 2025.</li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.</li>
</ul>


TSMC October Revenue Rises 29.2% YoY; Continued Strong Growth Despite Harder YoY Comparison
GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Recovery Expectation Has Been Delayed from 2H24 to 2025.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Oct Revenue; GlobalWafers Recovery Pushed to 2025E; UMC 4Q24E Challenges

Taiwan

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

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Globalwafers (6488 TT)

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA