Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  </li>
<li>We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.</li>
<li>The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  </li>
</ul>


The Globalwafers (6488 TT) outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  
We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.
The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining</li>
<li>SUMCO's Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 </li>
<li>The company vowed to make "substantial" production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. </li>
</ul>


Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining
SUMCO's Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 
The company vowed to make "substantial" production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. 


Silicon Wafers. SUMCO Sounds The Alarm As Inventory Continues To Climb

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.</li>
<li>The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.</li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.
The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.</li>
<li>Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided</li>
<li>There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.
Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided
There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...


SUMCO Q1’23 Revenues of ¥109.9 Billion, -6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY.</li>
<li>Q2'23 revenues forecasted flat sequentially with no prospect of a second half recovery.</li>
<li>Why no H2 recovery ? And why did GlobalWafers outperform Siltronic last quarter?</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY.
Q2'23 revenues forecasted flat sequentially with no prospect of a second half recovery.
Why no H2 recovery ? And why did GlobalWafers outperform Siltronic last quarter?


Siltronic Q1'23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Taiwan

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

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Globalwafers (6488 TT)