European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 4 August, the consortium sweetened the offer by 50p, 3.3%, to 1,550p/share, comprising 1,450p+100p special dividend (conditional upon Scheme becoming Effective); 13.3x Fwd P/E and 7.9x EV/Fwd EBIT.</li>
<li>Still below below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for Stagecoach, but the market believes that the deal will complete. Irrevocable undertakings plus letters of intent represent 26.86%.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.04%, 8.66% estimated annual return (assuming settlement and paying of the special dividend on 22 September). Reiterate long GOG LN.</li>
</ul>


On 4 August, the consortium sweetened the offer by 50p, 3.3%, to 1,550p/share, comprising 1,450p+100p special dividend (conditional upon Scheme becoming Effective); 13.3x Fwd P/E and 7.9x EV/Fwd EBIT.
Still below below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for Stagecoach, but the market believes that the deal will complete. Irrevocable undertakings plus letters of intent represent 26.86%.
Gross spread is 1.04%, 8.66% estimated annual return (assuming settlement and paying of the special dividend on 22 September). Reiterate long GOG LN.


Kinetic&Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Increased Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible</li>
<li>At 0.81x newly-lowered book value, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-unity-office-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24077:1" rel="noopener">Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU)</a> is trading at a relatively low multiple. </li>
</ul>


Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term

Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) / Alibaba Group (9988 HK) issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible
At 0.81x newly-lowered book value, Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) is trading at a relatively low multiple. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

<ul>
<li>On 21 July, a disciplined Kelsian dropped out of race for Go-Ahead, and won't be able to bid for six months therefore Kinetic/Globalvia consortium should be unrivaled in the takeover offer.</li>
<li>At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach, but the market is now pricing that the Kinetic/Globalvia consortium will complete the deal. </li>
<li>Gross spread is 0.93% and the estimated annual return would be 6.84% assuming settlement on 14 September (see timeline). Long.</li>
</ul>


On 21 July, a disciplined Kelsian dropped out of race for Go-Ahead, and won't be able to bid for six months therefore Kinetic/Globalvia consortium should be unrivaled in the takeover offer.
At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach, but the market is now pricing that the Kinetic/Globalvia consortium will complete the deal. 
Gross spread is 0.93% and the estimated annual return would be 6.84% assuming settlement on 14 September (see timeline). Long.


Clear Road for Kinetic/Globalvia Consortium

<ul>
<li>Although Gerrard Bidco offers a 1500p package (likely settlement on 2 September), the shares are trading c. 6% above in the expectation of a counteroffer.</li>
<li>At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach. FirstGroup is trading at 11.9x EV/Fwd EBIT after rebuffing I Squared Capital Advisors' approach.</li>
<li>I do not believe shareholders will accept the current offer. Kelsian could counterbid up to 1715p (Stagecoach takeout multiple), 14% above current offer (c. 7.3% spread, 42% estimated annual return).</li>
</ul>


Although Gerrard Bidco offers a 1500p package (likely settlement on 2 September), the shares are trading c. 6% above in the expectation of a counteroffer.
At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach. FirstGroup is trading at 11.9x EV/Fwd EBIT after rebuffing I Squared Capital Advisors' approach.
I do not believe shareholders will accept the current offer. Kelsian could counterbid up to 1715p (Stagecoach takeout multiple), 14% above current offer (c. 7.3% spread, 42% estimated annual return).


Kinetic & Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Recommended Offer

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firstgroup-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21936:1" rel="noopener">Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN)</a> is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years.
In this report I look at the history of activist tilts towards FGP LN including the latest attempt by Coast Capital, as well as delve into business performance and share price valuation, and see what it all means for event-driven investors.

Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN) is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years.
In this report I look at the history of activist tilts towards FGP LN including the latest attempt by Coast Capital, as well as delve into business performance and share price valuation, and see what it all means for event-driven investors.

FirstGroup Plc – Barbarians at the Bus Stop

United Kingdom

Go-Ahead Group is a multi-national public transport company that operates bus and rail services. It provides bus networks across the UK, Ireland, Singapore, Australia, and the Nordics, as well as rail services in the UK and Norway. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1987.

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Go-Ahead Group (GOG LN)

Kinetic&Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Increased Offer

On 4 August, the Boards announced a sweetened offer at 1,550p/share, still below the multiples of Stagecoach, but fairer for Go-Ahead's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Clear Road for Kinetic/Globalvia Consortium

The consortium has now a clear path to acquire Go-Ahead, after Kelsian has renounced presenting an alternative takeover bid. The market is now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Kinetic & Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Recommended Offer

The Board recommends Kinetic and Globalvia offer, but the market believes Go-Ahead is worth more. The shares are trading 6% above the consideration...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FirstGroup Plc – Barbarians at the Bus Stop

Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN) is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years. In this...

John DeMasi

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