European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Although Gerrard Bidco offers a 1500p package (likely settlement on 2 September), the shares are trading c. 6% above in the expectation of a counteroffer.</li>
<li>At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach. FirstGroup is trading at 11.9x EV/Fwd EBIT after rebuffing I Squared Capital Advisors' approach.</li>
<li>I do not believe shareholders will accept the current offer. Kelsian could counterbid up to 1715p (Stagecoach takeout multiple), 14% above current offer (c. 7.3% spread, 42% estimated annual return).</li>
</ul>


Although Gerrard Bidco offers a 1500p package (likely settlement on 2 September), the shares are trading c. 6% above in the expectation of a counteroffer.
At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach. FirstGroup is trading at 11.9x EV/Fwd EBIT after rebuffing I Squared Capital Advisors' approach.
I do not believe shareholders will accept the current offer. Kelsian could counterbid up to 1715p (Stagecoach takeout multiple), 14% above current offer (c. 7.3% spread, 42% estimated annual return).


Kinetic & Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Recommended Offer

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firstgroup-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21936:1" rel="noopener">Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN)</a> is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years.</p>
<p>In this report I look at the history of activist tilts towards FGP LN including the latest attempt by Coast Capital, as well as delve into business performance and share price valuation, and see what it all means for event-driven investors.</p>

Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN) is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years.
In this report I look at the history of activist tilts towards FGP LN including the latest attempt by Coast Capital, as well as delve into business performance and share price valuation, and see what it all means for event-driven investors.

FirstGroup Plc – Barbarians at the Bus Stop

United Kingdom

Go-Ahead Group is a multi-national public transport company that operates bus and rail services. It provides bus networks across the UK, Ireland, Singapore, Australia, and the Nordics, as well as rail services in the UK and Norway. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1987.

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Go-Ahead Group (GOG LN)

Kinetic & Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Recommended Offer

The Board recommends Kinetic and Globalvia offer, but the market believes Go-Ahead is worth more. The shares are trading 6% above the consideration...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FirstGroup Plc – Barbarians at the Bus Stop

Firstgroup PLC (FGP LN) is a UK-based transit provider that has been in the sights of activist investors on and off for a number of years. In this...

John DeMasi

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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