Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX Index - Japan's premier domestic equity index - will undergo a sea change in methodology at the end of this month, with ~760 names affected. </li>
<li>There will be roughly 35 or so ADDs, about 700 DELETEs (phased out over 8 quarters), and 40+ Liquidity Factor Removals. There will also be hundreds of FFW changes. </li>
<li>The likely ADDs have handily outperformed their peers over the past year, but some of that has been tech and idiosyncratic circumstances. There may still be trades to do.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX Index - Japan's premier domestic equity index - will undergo a sea change in methodology at the end of this month, with ~760 names affected. 
There will be roughly 35 or so ADDs, about 700 DELETEs (phased out over 8 quarters), and 40+ Liquidity Factor Removals. There will also be hundreds of FFW changes. 
The likely ADDs have handily outperformed their peers over the past year, but some of that has been tech and idiosyncratic circumstances. There may still be trades to do.


[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part V (Final Prep)

<ul>
<li>Two+ years ago, the TSE announced a second phase methodology change for its main equity index TOPIX. TOPIX would change from being inclusive to being exclusive, resembling global indices. </li>
<li>The data cutoff for TOPIX methodology change rankings is 14bd away. That cutoff determines who gets in, who stays in, and who gets the boot. The annual FFW review coincides.</li>
<li>The BEST trades are the unrelated FFW trades, the INs, the LFRs, and of course, the NOT OUTs. Borderlines are interesting. Two stocks +2%? -4%?, +42/24x ADV. Or not. </li>
</ul>


Two+ years ago, the TSE announced a second phase methodology change for its main equity index TOPIX. TOPIX would change from being inclusive to being exclusive, resembling global indices. 
The data cutoff for TOPIX methodology change rankings is 14bd away. That cutoff determines who gets in, who stays in, and who gets the boot. The annual FFW review coincides.
The BEST trades are the unrelated FFW trades, the INs, the LFRs, and of course, the NOT OUTs. Borderlines are interesting. Two stocks +2%? -4%?, +42/24x ADV. Or not. 


[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part III (INs Vs OUTs - Borderlines Are Trading Opps)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 29 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (2559 HK)</a> announced two transactions: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>'s voluntary conditional offer at HK$1.3875 per share and a special dividend of HK$1.1745 per share. </li>
<li>The total consideration of HK$2.5620 is a 108.3% premium to the undisturbed price. The key condition is a minimum acceptance of 50%, which will be satisfied by the irrevocables.</li>
<li>This is a low-risk deal as the offer does not require PRC regulatory approvals. Despite being below the 52-week high, the total offer is attractive. </li>
</ul>


On 29 June, Dida (2559 HK) announced two transactions: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)'s voluntary conditional offer at HK$1.3875 per share and a special dividend of HK$1.1745 per share. 
The total consideration of HK$2.5620 is a 108.3% premium to the undisturbed price. The key condition is a minimum acceptance of 50%, which will be satisfied by the irrevocables.
This is a low-risk deal as the offer does not require PRC regulatory approvals. Despite being below the 52-week high, the total offer is attractive. 


Dida (2559 HK): Tongcheng (780 HK)’s VGO and Special Dividend

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Activist Murakami Group bought a bunch of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA (2432 JP)</a> last fall when it was cheap. Then they sold. Then they bought more. Now they have gone back below 5%. </li>
<li>DeNA sold a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a> stake after that stock price fell, and in Feb26 announced a HUGE 1-year buyback. They'll probably finish this month, buying back 17% in 3+mos.</li>
<li>In the meantime, they have sold another asset. They're still cash-rich. And very cheap at an Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EV/EBITDA of 2.2x. But they're really, really out of favour.</li>
</ul>


Activist Murakami Group bought a bunch of DeNA (2432 JP) last fall when it was cheap. Then they sold. Then they bought more. Now they have gone back below 5%. 
DeNA sold a Nintendo (7974 JP) stake after that stock price fell, and in Feb26 announced a HUGE 1-year buyback. They'll probably finish this month, buying back 17% in 3+mos.
In the meantime, they have sold another asset. They're still cash-rich. And very cheap at an Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EV/EBITDA of 2.2x. But they're really, really out of favour.


[Japan Event] DeNA (2432 JP) - Big Buyback Accretion Means Really Cheap (Unlevered) Bundle of Assets

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)'s</a> succesful listing appears to have set off a deal frenzy in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Over the past week, there were a number of placements in India, along with a few large deals in Hong Kong as well.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front SpaceX (SPCX US)'s succesful listing appears to have set off a deal frenzy in Hong Kong.
Over the past week, there were a number of placements in India, along with a few large deals in Hong Kong as well.


Aequitas ECM Weekly (22 June 2026) - SpaceX, GO, Lingyi, SG Micro, Circuit Fab, Merdeka, Kioxia, NSE

Japan

GO Inc. develops software products. The Company provides taxi data platforms, taxi dispatch systems, and more. GO offers its services in Japan.

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GO (581A JP)

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part V (Final Prep)

The TSE announcement for wholesale changes in the TOPIX Index is scheduled for Wednesday after the close. I expect 34-35 ADDs, ~700 DELETEs, and...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part III (INs Vs OUTs - Borderlines Are Trading Opps)

The TOPIX Rebal is interesting. One pricing date, on a long flat tail of rankings, to determine whether to buy or sell 5-40x ADV. That kicks up...

Travis Lundy

Dida (2559 HK): Tongcheng (780 HK)’s VGO and Special Dividend

This is a low-risk deal as the offer does not require PRC reg approvals and irrevocables satisfy the min acceptance condition. Despite being below...

Arun George

[Japan Event] DeNA (2432 JP) - Big Buyback Accretion Means Really Cheap (Unlevered) Bundle of Assets

DeNA is an interesting assortment of somewhat mundane businesses with a big pile of cash and securities. A buyback diminished that, but an asset...

Travis Lundy

Aequitas ECM Weekly (22 June 2026) - SpaceX, GO, Lingyi, SG Micro, Circuit Fab, Merdeka, Kioxia, NSE

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

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