Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> upcoming inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect  (SSC) platform could provide a tailwind to its share price and the Hong Kong market.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> reported good 1H 2024 results with an increase of 23% in new store openings.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> target price was increased after 1H2024 earnings.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a> ratings were cut after reporting lower 1H24 earnings.  The company omitted its interim dividend.
</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) upcoming inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect  (SSC) platform could provide a tailwind to its share price and the Hong Kong market.


Tuhu Car (9690 HK) reported good 1H 2024 results with an increase of 23% in new store openings.  AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) target price was increased after 1H2024 earnings.


Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) ratings were cut after reporting lower 1H24 earnings.  The company omitted its interim dividend.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 28)

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market showed defensiveness during early August selloff and the overall breadth of the market continues to improve.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> received upgrades after reporting strong 2Q24 results.  Its SEA and China business showed growth in revenue and profitability.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> received an upgrade after revenue and EBITDA approached pre-COVID levels.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fit-hon-teng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22868:1" rel="noopener">FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)</a> is seeing improvement in AI server, AirPod, and EV segments.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market showed defensiveness during early August selloff and the overall breadth of the market continues to improve.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) received upgrades after reporting strong 2Q24 results.  Its SEA and China business showed growth in revenue and profitability.

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) received an upgrade after revenue and EBITDA approached pre-COVID levels.  FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK) is seeing improvement in AI server, AirPod, and EV segments.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 21)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer Staples ($962 million worth of outflows), Consumer Discretionary ($561 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight monthly outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer Staples ($962 million worth of outflows), Consumer Discretionary ($561 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight monthly outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.


Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.4bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Seemed somewhat cap-weighted. Not a pretty flow picture. </li>
<li>A-Shares sharply underperformed HK indices, but AH spreads didn't recover the prior week's disaster. That said, there WAS dip-buying this week on the worst hit, which is unusual recently.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.4bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Seemed somewhat cap-weighted. Not a pretty flow picture. 
A-Shares sharply underperformed HK indices, but AH spreads didn't recover the prior week's disaster. That said, there WAS dip-buying this week on the worst hit, which is unusual recently.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

China

GoerTek, Inc. manufactures wireless communication products. The Company offers wireless communication devices armed with wireless technology, active noise cancellation headphones, VoIP devices, hands-free headsets, and other electro-acoustic devices. GoerTek serves the telecommunication and electro-acoustic industries worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Goertek Inc A (002241 CH)

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 28)

Alibaba inclusion in the SB connect platform could be a positive market catalyst. Tuhu reported a large increase in new stores in 1H2024. AAC saw...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 21)

The Hong Kong market breadth continues to improve as the market has shown defensive qualities during recent selloff. J&T Global, Galaxy and FIT...

David Mudd

Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for July and highlight outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

NORTHBOUND saw selling again, making the strong buying blip two weeks ago just that. Selling across the heavyweights as A-shares underperformed HK....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)