Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express</a>, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will look at its PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will look at its PHIP updates.


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Express</a>, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Adjusted Sales Growth Was Negative

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> aims to complete the IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a> in the next 12 to 18 months. Alibaba holds a 67% stake in Cainiao. </li>
<li>Cainiao's revenue growth, while on a declining trend, remains in double digits. Encouragingly. narrowing losses set a path to profitability.</li>
<li>On 30 March, Bloomberg reported that Cainiao is currently valued at more than US$20 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that such a valuation is justifiable.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) aims to complete the IPO of Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) in the next 12 to 18 months. Alibaba holds a 67% stake in Cainiao. 
Cainiao's revenue growth, while on a declining trend, remains in double digits. Encouragingly. narrowing losses set a path to profitability.
On 30 March, Bloomberg reported that Cainiao is currently valued at more than US$20 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that such a valuation is justifiable.


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Lalatech Holdings filed for an IPO in March. I have tried to come at an IPO valuation for the company using a mix of methodologies: EV/Revenue, EV/GTV and EV/Gross Profit.</li>
<li>Taking a weighted average of peer group multiples-based valuation methodologies, I arrived at a ~$7B IPO valuation for Lalatech Holdings, including ~$1.65B of cash and cash equivalents.</li>
<li>From a peer group perspective, I arrived at a fair IPO valuation close to ~$7B, using a ~5x EV/CY22 Revenue, ~0.7x EV/CY22 GTV, and a 10x EV/CY22 Gross Profit multiple. </li>
</ul>


Lalatech Holdings filed for an IPO in March. I have tried to come at an IPO valuation for the company using a mix of methodologies: EV/Revenue, EV/GTV and EV/Gross Profit.
Taking a weighted average of peer group multiples-based valuation methodologies, I arrived at a ~$7B IPO valuation for Lalatech Holdings, including ~$1.65B of cash and cash equivalents.
From a peer group perspective, I arrived at a fair IPO valuation close to ~$7B, using a ~5x EV/CY22 Revenue, ~0.7x EV/CY22 GTV, and a 10x EV/CY22 Gross Profit multiple. 


Lalatech IPO Valuation Analysis: Discount To Last Round Valuation Is Justified

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>, a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.  </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lalatech-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108291" rel="noopener">Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, maiden profitability built on a shaky foundation and barely positive underlying FCF. </li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK), a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.  
In Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, maiden profitability built on a shaky foundation and barely positive underlying FCF. 


China

GOGOX Holdings Limited operates an online intra-city logistics platform in Asia, providing logistic and delivery solutions under the Kuaigou Dache and GOGOX brand names. Its services include freight, courier, and moving, as well as enterprise and value-added services. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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GOGOX (2246 HK)

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet

J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Adjusted Sales Growth Was Negative

J&T Global Express won listing approval yesterday. The company is due to file its updated PHIP and will begin marketing in the coming week.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba’s Cainiao IPO: The First Look

Alibaba has submitted a listing plan to HKEx to spin-off Cainiao. After the spin-off, Alibaba will hold over 50% of outstanding shares. The share...

Arun George

Lalatech IPO Valuation Analysis: Discount To Last Round Valuation Is Justified

Lalatech Holdings is expected to go public this year and may raise $1B in the upcoming Hong Kong IPO. My analysis suggests a significant discount...

Andrei Zakharov

Lalatech IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, profitability built on a...

Arun George

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